According to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, what Vladimir Putin desires goes beyond merely seizing territories; he also seeks compliant governments and complete Russification of these nations.
She told Euronews that although the protest movement in her country was mostly forced underground, it also means people are preparing to rise up when the time is right.
When discussing potential shifts in Russia’s dynamics affecting Belarus, Tsikhanouskaya believes that "if changes occur in Russia, this could diminish Alexander Lukashenko's position and inspire another uprising of the populace. This situation might mirror Ukraine’s success story. Consequently, both Putin and Lukashenko would lose strength.”
However, transformations in Russia could also originate from changes within Belarus," Tsikhanouskaya noted, mentioning that there are "greater opportunities to alter the leadership in Belarus compared to Russia.
The ongoing suppression that we've experienced over these past four, nearly five years, has not led people to forgive, forget, or renounce their pro-European views.
The Belarusian human rights organization Viasna reports that more than 50,000 individuals have been arrested for political reasons since widespread demonstrations began after the 2020 presidential elections won by Lukashenko. Additionally, at least 5,472 people have faced convictions in connection with politically motivated criminal proceedings.
The UN calculates that approximately 300,000 people from Belarus have departed the nation recently, primarily heading to Poland and Lithuania.
As stated by Tsikhanouskaya, up to 20 individuals continue to be arrested daily in Belarus, with numbers ranging from 15 to 20 people each day.
She states that Lukashenko acts as though thousands of individuals are still gathered in front of his residence.
The apparent tranquility of the countryside does not imply that people have surrendered. Instead, it indicates that individuals are gearing up and will be prepared once an opportunity arises.
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