Ethiopia and Eritrea Vow to Sidestep War, But Peace Remains Uncertain

Both Ethiopia and Eritrea have committed to preventing armed conflict between their nations at any cost, despite being unable to ensure lasting tranquility over an extended period.

On Thursday, Ethiopian Premier Abiy Ahmed stated that Ethiopia does not intend to invade Eritrea and guaranteed that there will be no war. However, he reiterated his wish to gain coastal access, which could lead to potential disagreements with neighboring countries in the future. "We aim to negotiate following the principle of mutual compromise. The focus for the Eritrean populace should be progress rather than confrontation. Our strategy is not combat; instead, we seek collaboration and shared advancement," he asserted during a parliamentary update session.

Ethiopia has the largest population of all landlocked countries globally.

However, Abiy reaffirmed that a nation with more than 120 million inhabitants requires access to a sea port. "Gaining access to the Red Sea remains crucial for Ethiopia’s survival," he stated. He further emphasized, "Our aim is to resolve present issues through peaceful means."


The tensions have escalated significantly between these neighboring countries ever since Abiy declared back in October that having access to the sea is crucial for Ethiopia's survival. He stated, “Access to the Red Sea shouldn’t turn into a rivalry among Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Kenya; instead, it ought to be seen as a common asset.” The Prime Minister pointed out that the extensive 5,000 kilometers of shoreline along the Horn of Africa can accommodate all parties involved.
"There are reports suggesting an impending clash with the Eritrean administration,” continued the Prime Minister, emphasizing his desire to reassure citizens from both nations — Ethiopians and Eritreans alike—that "Ethiopia does not intend to invade Eritrea just to gain control over the Red Sea."
Recently, increasing apprehension surrounds the possibility that fighting might resume in Ethiopia's northern Tigray area, which could draw in Eritrea once more.

The Tigray conflict, which lasted for two years, officially came to an end in November 2022 after the signing of an agreement in Pretoria under the mediation of the African Union.

Nonetheless, some aspects of the peace accord, referred to as the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, are starting to fall apart amid escalating political pressures among the leadership in Tigray.

Allegations have emerged claiming that Eritrea is interfering in the region's internal conflicts.

On Thursday, Tigray’s Acting Head, Getachew Reda, charged his political adversaries with joining forces with Eritrea, a country that had formerly backed the Ethiopian federal government throughout the conflict.

He asserted that there are grounds to suspect the involvement of outside entities, with Eritrea seeing the turmoil in Tigray as a chance to pursue its own objectives.

In reply, Eritrea’s Foreign Minister, Osman Saleh, strongly dismissed these allegations, asserting during a gathering with diplomats in Asmara on Tuesday that his nation had no part in the conflicts in northern Ethiopia.

Saleh condemned Ethiopia's "flawed and antiquated aspirations" concerning sea access and the creation of a naval station, regardless of whether they pursue it diplomatically or militarily.

At a briefing for diplomats and leaders of UN agencies in Asmara, Saleh called upon the international community to urge Ethiopia to honor the sovereignty and territorial boundaries of its neighboring countries.

The briefing additionally mentioned "fabricated allegations" concerning its purported readiness for war with Ethiopia, its stance on the Pretoria Accord, and Ethiopia’s efforts to gain coastal rights.

Mr. Saleh rejected assertions implying the presence of Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) in Ethiopia as unfounded, blaming these allegations on attempts to blame Eritrea for Ethiopia’s domestic issues.


Asmara asserts that its forces, implicated in crimes committed in Tigray, have withdrawn from combat zones but maintain they were relocated to "Eritrea's recognized frontiers." The government also alleges that ex-members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) opposed the rulings made by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC), attempting to instigate political upheaval within Eritrea.
"He stated that anyone claiming or implying that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) remain on Ethiopian soil is merely deflecting blame onto Eritrea for issues stemming from inside Ethiopia,"
"These allegations originate from previous TPLF associates who initially refused and persistently oppose the definitive EEBC verdict. They aimed unsuccessfully at orchestrating a regime shift in Eritrea," he added.

In 1998, Eritrea and Ethiopia found themselves at war, a conflict eventually resolved through Algerian-mediated negotiations. Despite avoiding direct confrontations following their peace agreement in 2000, unresolved matters such as the precise delineation of borders and certain territorial disputes claimed by Eritrea remain unaddressed. Currently, the main point of disagreement centers around Ethiopia’s desire for coastal access under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's leadership.

He upset Somalia last year when he signed an agreement with Somaliland, which Somalia regards as part of its territory. Although this Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was not made public, authorities indicated that it allowed Ethiopia to lease a naval base while also promising recognition for Somaliland’s autonomy. However, relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have improved since then due to Turkish-mediated talks that eased previous hostilities.


Why might Ethiopia and Eritrea be headed towards another potential conflict? Following Eritrea's independence along with its coastlines, Ethiopia believes it should also gain maritime access via Eritrean territory.
"Eritrea is bewildered by Ethiopia's persistent and antiquated aspirations for sea passage and naval bases 'by diplomatic means or armed intervention,' according to Yemane Gebremeskel, the Minister of Information for Eritrea."
Therefore, Eritrea has called upon the global community and pertinent organizations to urge Ethiopia to honor the sovereign rights and boundaries of neighboring countries.
It's worth noting that internal divisions within the TPLF factionalize could serve as a breeding ground for renewed warfare. Last week, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Gedion Timotelewos, voiced concerns during discussions with diplomats in Addis Ababa, suggesting that some groups within Tigray might maintain connections with Eritrea; however, he didn’t elaborate further.

Tension has escalated between the interim government of Tigray led by President Getachew Reda and the head of the TPLF, Debretsion Gebremichael.

In a statement, the Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs charged the TPLF faction headed by Dr Debretsion with “forming alliances and cooperating with external entities that pose a threat to Ethiopia.” Mr. Getachew added that certain TPLF and military officials on the opposing side had reportedly convened with Eritrean leadership “to enhance their bargaining position against the federal government.” However, the alleged TPLF group refutes these claims. Recently, Tadesse Werede, the region’s vice president and chief of security, stated emphatically that asserting links between Tigrayan security forces and Eritrea is erroneous. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. Syndigate.info ).

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