Tokyo's intend to install long-range missiles In the southwestern part of the nation, one might think of the Taiwan Strait and North Korea, and it could potentially restrict Chinese naval ships from reaching the Pacific Ocean, according to experts.
The Japanese news agency Kyodo stated on Sunday that Tokyo might be contemplating deploying the missiles In the southwest islands of Kyushu, measures will be implemented to enhance "retaliatory strike abilities" should a confrontation occur.
According to the report, which referenced information from Japanese governmental authorities, the deployment is expected to occur around March 2026. This move aims at enhancing the defense of the Nansei Islands—also referred to as the Ryukyu islands. As part of this island group, Kyushu holds significant strategic value due to its close location. Taiwan .
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According to Kyodo, Tokyo is evaluating potential locations in Kyushu for deployment. The report suggests that the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s surface-to-ship missile unit stationed in Yufu within Oita Prefecture and the city of Kumamoto are among the top choices.
The missiles set for deployment are an enhanced variant of Japan’s Type-12 surface-to-ship guided missile, featuring an increased range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). This extended capability means that both North Korea and the eastern coastline of China could now be targeted from Kyushu Island.
Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, stated that Japan’s actions conveyed a warning that significant consequences would follow if Beijing were to undertake a military action across the Taiwan Strait or within the surrounding areas. Diaoyu Islands The Diaoyus — referred to as the Senkakus in Japan — are a cluster of unpopulated islands located in the East China Sea, claimed by both China and Japan.
Nagy stated that Tokyo aimed to demonstrate to Washington that it prioritizes security and is committed to bearing its appropriate share of responsibility within the alliance. Additionally, he mentioned that Japan has concerns over Beijing’s actions in the area, such as military exercises near Taiwan and gray zone operations.
Nagy stated that essentially, Beijing's assessments rely on the belief that an invasion of Taiwan would entail significant costs across economic, military, and political domains.
If set too high, they may hesitate to participate in hostile military actions against nearby countries and partners.
Raymond Kuo, who leads the RAND Corporation's Taiwan Initiative, stated that these missile systems would "undoubtedly heighten" the risk for ships of the People's Liberation Army Navy, leading Beijing to be more circumspect.
"[The PLA will be] devoting resources to protecting their own forces, perhaps not ranging out quite as far into those waters, and pulling back from actions that might escalate - accidentally or intentionally - into open conflict," he said.
"A crucial point, however, is how Japan coordinates its operational strategies with both South Korea and Taiwan," Kuo stated, noting that sharing maritime surveillance data would help prevent accidental targeting of their ships by Japanese missiles.
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, noted that long-range missiles like those proposed in Japan’s Kyushu plan are typically designed for anti-ship missions; however, these weapons can also serve for attacking land targets.
For several decades, they have been running coastal defense missile systems," he stated, further noting that the new strategy represents "a natural evolution of this.
Koh mentioned that Japan's southwestern islands had long been a point of emphasis. He added, "'This isn’t solely about Taiwan—even though it has recently grown into a more urgent matter due to the surrounding tensions.'"
Koh notes that recent People's Liberation Army (PLA) exercises have expanded beyond the areas close to Taiwan, extending into the East China Sea and even entering Japan’s exclusive economic zone. This shift has prompted Japan to enhance its defense measures by positioning missiles capable of targeting both the Taiwan Strait and the Diaoyu Islands.
Koh stated that the missiles were aimed not only at deterring China but could also hit North Korea's territory.
He stated that this appears to mirror Tokyo's view of an increasing threat from China, and consequently, North Korea.
Koh further noted that both China and Russia have been carrying out frequent naval passages and joint patrols that, in certain respects, "transgress Japanese maritime routes."
"Thus, this clearly isn’t solely aimed at Taiwan; rather, it’s intended to discourage North Korea, China, and Russia as well,” he stated.
I believe Japan probably recognizes that there is a far more serious security situation due to the interaction among these three parties involved.
As the strategic importance of the "first island chain" grows due to heightened Chinese military activity close to the Pacific Ocean—particularly around the crucial east coast of Taiwan—Japan has intensified security measures for its southwestern islands. This archipelago extends from Japan via Taiwan down to the Philippines and Indonesia, serving as a vital defensive perimeter for the United States against potential threats from China.
In early May, the Chinese People's Liberation Army carried out several blockade exercises near Taiwan just a few days prior. William Lai Ching-te , from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, was sworn in as the island's newest leader.
In an analogous military exercise in October, the PLA conducted simulations of both land and sea attacks targeting areas to the north, south, and east of Taiwan. During this drill, the Liaoning aircraft carrier transited the Bashi Channel to conduct operations around the southern portion of the island and was also active off the eastern coast of Taiwan.
Beijing considers Taiwan as a part of China that needs to come under its authority—using military action if required. Similar to many nations, the United States doesn’t acknowledge the independently governed island as a separate country; however, it opposes any effort to seize it through force and is obligated by law to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons.
In December 2022, Tokyo aimed to enhance its capacity for conducting retaliatory strikes in case of a missile assault – with the objective of “deterring subsequent attacks” – as part of its updated national security strategy. This move was prompted by escalating worries about a possible conflict involving Beijing in the East China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait.
In the meantime, according to Kyodo news agency in November, reports indicated this was also noted by the U.S. planning to dispatch a Marine Corps littoral unit fitted with a HIMARS rocket launch system for the Nansei Islands as part of a joint strategy with Japan aimed at addressing a possible Taiwan scenario.
In May 2023, Japan positioned US-manufactured Patriot III anti-missile systems on Yonaguni Island—approximately 111 kilometers due east of Taiwan—and also on neighboring Miyako and Ishigaki Islands.
In January of the previous year, Japan’s defense ministry announced that they had entered into an agreement with the U.S. government for approximately 254 billion yen ($1.7 billion) to obtain as many as 400 advanced long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles by 2027.
Tomahawk missiles can travel up to 1,600 kilometers, which allows them to hit targets in both China and North Korea when launched from Japan. The country intends to install these missiles on all eight of its Aegis destroyers and also add them to two additional Aegis system-equipped ships scheduled for deployment in 2027 and 2028.
Koh mentioned that Japan’s strategic positioning could place it in an intriguing situation if a conflict were to erupt close to Taiwan within the confines of the first island chain.
He stated that a confrontation involving Taiwan would probably not remain limited to the Taiwan Strait.
One of the key areas anticipated for military operations is the Philippine Sea," Koh stated. "This is expected to be where Chinese naval forces might aim to confront an American aircraft carrier group... The tactic centers on attempting to position these crucial engagements as distant as feasible from the first island chain.
Missile systems strategically positioned within the first island chain could prevent China from utilizing these waterways to venture into the broader Pacific Ocean for combat operations, as stated by Koh.
He stated that if the missile systems were designated for offensive operations and Japan participated in a conflict involving Taiwan alongside the United States, this could certainly provide justification for Japan to become a target of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
"The missile systems could act as part of a more resilient component since concentrating those Tomahawk missiles solely on the Aegis destroyers means that if these ships are targeted and destroyed, an additional alternate method for long-range strikes would be necessary," Koh stated.
These missiles have the capability to retaliate or potentially thwart preemptive attacks aimed at China’s crucial infrastructure, as well as important military sites along the coastline.
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