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By Musanjufu Benjamin Kavubu
Following the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, both Washington and its Western partners were uncertain about how events would unfold. Their entire strategic frameworks had been geared towards competing against the Soviet Union, and consequently, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) no longer saw the need to focus on the Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti (KGB).
In a matter of days, the Gosbank State Bank of the USSR and Comecon vanished, leaving the IMF without an adversary. With the recent conclusion of activities from the U.S Agency for International Development (USAID), they found themselves unchecked as both the Vneshtekhobank and the Soviet Committee for Solidary with Asia and Africa ceased operations, thus halting their involvement in Soviet foreign assistance initiatives. Over the past thirty years, there hasn’t been much incentive for America/West to exert its worldwide influence.
Without facing opposition from the Warsaw Pact, NATO embarked on an unnecessary expansion that resulted in a direct confrontation with Russia in 2014, with Ukraine becoming the main battlefield. The alliance supported Washington in military operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan, which collectively amounted to approximately $8 trillion when accounting for expenses such as veteran healthcare, loan interests, and rebuilding commitments. This vast sum could have been sufficient to finance six iterations of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
As the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan and Iraq, it’s evident that all those financial resources amounted to little since they ended up losing both conflicts tactically and strategically. This led to the untimely death of countless individuals.
The actions of Western countries over the past thirty years have accelerated their own decline and reduced America’s global standing, according to Nnando Kizito Sseruwagi, a senior researcher at Development Watch Centre, who highlighted this in his piece "A Better Deal: Why Africa Is Turning to China for Development." He noted that every empire attempting worldwide dominance has ultimately fallen apart.
The truth is that with America's declining influence, a void is emerging—avoid that has the potential to redefine the global order.
The undertakings of Trump 2.o are all being a catalyst to the decline of the West. He has officially decided to put an end to USAID after 6 decades, throwing away what looks like Washington’s biggest soft power tool. It’s becoming more and more evident that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) will not survive as commercial diplomacy is being President Trump’s path of international relations. Washington through its America first policy is rolling out Tariffs even towards its long-standing allies like Canada, a member of NATO and G7 an indicator that AGOA is in its last days.
President Trump has consistently demonstrated unorthodox behavior throughout his tenure. During his first term, he proceeded with meetings involving the North Korean leader without achieving substantial outcomes. Additionally, he orchestrated the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, ultimately surrendering control of the nation to the Taliban—a move that epitomized one of America's most vulnerable moments.
Recently, Israeli media reported that Trump engaged in direct negotiations with Hamas, which the U.S. government classifies as a terrorist group. Demonstrating his unorthodox diplomatic methods, Trump also dispatched a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader concerning a new agreement about Iran’s nuclear program following his withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—a pact under which Iran committed exclusively to using its nuclear technology for peaceful ends while simultaneously welcoming international oversight.
Everybody understands that the Iranians will not enter negotiations out of disrespect, as if they were peddling their nation like property. Throughout his campaign for returning to the presidency, Mr. Trump stated on the Joe Logan podcast that America received nothing in exchange for safeguarding Taiwan. He compared this scenario to how the Mafia provides protection services. This mindset guided what he termed "commercial diplomacy," which later shaped his stance towards the Ukrainian issue. Following an intense argument in the Oval Office with the President of Ukraine, Washington halted its military aid to Kyiv and ceased all intelligence collaboration with Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration until a pact was reached guaranteeing $500 billion worth of rare-earth minerals to be supplied to the United States.
He is essentially putting NATO on autopilot, and the European Union realizes it needs to take charge of its own security. In terms of defense, although AFRICOM—the African equivalent of NATO—survived de-funding during Trump’s first term, recent developments from the White House suggest otherwise. According to a scenario planning report by the French think tank Institut Montaigne, the future looks uncertain for AFRICOM.
In October 2020, China's president coined the phrase "the East is ascending while the West is waning." These words struck a chord with countries in the Global South due to recent developments. Currently, BRICS nations are proving to be strong competitors against the G7 in areas such as population size, which shapes market dynamics and workforce availability, and even more so during conflicts where they can contribute significantly to military efforts.
Manufacturing dominance now lies in Eastern regions, particularly Southeast Asia, as these areas assert themselves globally and impact groups such as the G20. In this shift, Beijing has introduced its Global Security Initiative (GSI). According to Alan Collins Mpewo, a senior researcher at Development Watch Centre, this initiative could address security gaps in locations like Africa, which he discusses in his article "D.R. Congo Issues: A Case for Trying China’s Global Security Initiative?" This concept might similarly apply to situations in both Sudan countries. For Beijing, this strategy extends to handling conflicts in Europe and served as the basis for renewing diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
China is well-positioned to step into the void left by Western powers. However, achieving this dominant position does not imply that China will take on the role of policing the globe. Instead, China has been investing in the Global South via platforms like FOCAC and initiatives such as the Belt and Road to create economically advanced counterparts rather than subordinate nations. This approach aims to redefine our planetary future through multilateral cooperation within a multi-polar framework that honors every culture and civilization.
The author serves as a research fellow at The Development Watch Centre.
Provided by Syndigate Media Inc. ( Syndigate.info ).
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