Cornyn and Paxton clash as Texas early voting kicks off

() -- As John Cornyn concludes a fierce primary election that could potentially end his 24-year career in the US Senate, the Republican is attempting to convey a straightforward message to voters: He is just as committed to MAGA as the rest of the party's supporters.

Texas Republicans are uncertain.

Although Cornyn rhetorically embraces President Donald Trump at every opportunity, he is having difficulty convincing enough Republican voters that he is the White House's most effective supporter in the Senate. Many of the most ardent Trump backers are supporting Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, as early voting starts on Monday ahead of a May 26 runoff marked by a fierce personal rivalry.

The competition serves as a lead-up to a crucial election for Republicans, who are striving to keep their hold on the chamber while facing public frustration over Trump's conflict in Iran and rising living expenses. Paxton, a long-time supporter of MAGA, has criticized Cornyn for not strongly backing Trump. In response, the senator has drawn attention to the attorney general's troubled history, which involves personal controversies and an impeachment hearing in the Texas legislature concerning charges of bribery and misuse of power.

It's a particularly harsh primary where both candidates are exchanging more than just insults, but there are serious concerns regarding their suitability to represent the Republican Party in Texas," said Joshua Blank, a political analyst at the University of Texas at Austin. "They're really focused on character and whether each is viable in an election.

James Talarico, a Democratic state representative who secured his primary victory without opposition, is waiting in the background. Although Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide position since 1994, initial polls indicate that Talarico is performing well against Cornyn or Paxton.

While Republican candidates are showering Trump with praise, he has not reciprocated his support for either of them. He had pledged to back a candidate following the initial voting round on March 3, after Cornyn narrowly beat Paxton but did not secure a clear majority. The president did not act on this promise, despite the Texas candidates' efforts to gain his approval.

Cornyn introduced a bill this month to rename a highway stretching from Texas to Montana as the "Trump Interstate." A pro-Paxton political action committee, aiming for presidential endorsement, ran advertisements in the Palm Beach, Florida, media area, which includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort.

The Texas primaries have become the most expensive in U.S. Senate history, as reported by AdImpact data. In just the runoff phase, Republican candidates and their supporters have invested $23 million in media, with nearly 80% of that amount coming from the Cornyn team. Talarico, who secured his primary victory against U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, has spent $2.6 million during the same timeframe.

Cornyn has navigated previous elections with ease and climbed to the position of Senate's second-highest-ranking Republican from 2013 to 2019. In his current campaign, he has secured significantly more funding than Paxton, receiving backing from donors such as Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, former President George W. Bush, and Republican strategist Karl Rove.

The senator and his supporting committees have collected over $70 million, significantly exceeding the $16 million gathered by Paxton and the super PAC that supports him, according to the most recent reports from the Federal Election Commission. Talarico secured $40 million by the end of March, while the super PAC backing him received $9 million.

Paxton, competing in his initial campaign for a federal position, has depended more on contributions from small donors. Several of his previous major supporters, such as energy mogul Tim Dunn, have not offered the same level of financial backing as before. However, he has received encouragement from local support within the Texas conservative community.

The Republican candidate is now set to be selected by a limited group of voters who are willing to return to the polls the day following a holiday break. Paxton received 48% compared to Cornyn's 45% in arecent surveylikely Republican voters by the University of Houston. The small difference was near the poll's 2.8-point margin of error.

The vote concludes a prolonged internal party conflict. Cornyn and Paxton are now aiming to motivate their base and gain support from followers of U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, who received 13% of the primary vote in March.

Cornyn has concentrated on Paxton's record of controversy. The attorney general faced impeachment by the state's Republican-led House of Representatives in 2023, but was cleared by the state Senate.

The assaults on Paxton have also involved a network of references to supposed relationships and his divorce from his wife, who previously stated she started the process "based on Biblical principles." In a digital advertisement released on Mother's Day, Cornyn claimed Paxton has "the ethics of a strip club owner."

"Texas mothers, would you want your daughter to marry a man like Ken Paxton?" the advertisement questioned.

Paxton, in response, has portrayed Cornyn as a weak-willed moderate who lacks proper allegiance to Trump. He highlighted a 2016 interview where Cornyn described Trump's proposed border wall as "naive." A recent Paxton advertisement featured this clip and labels Cornyn as "good for illegal immigrants" but "bad for Texans."

The state's top legal official has also filed lawsuits against liberal organizations and Texas public schools that do not display the Ten Commandments, as mandated by state law.

Ongoing attacks have the potential to discourage Republican voters, especially those backing the candidate who lost, at a moment when certain GOP strategists are worried about decreasing excitement before the midterm elections.

A Republican pollster from Ragnar Research Partners noted an "alarming pattern" of consistent Republican voters either abstaining or changing their political alignment.

Our results suggest a problem of voter fatigue among Republicans, stemming from a lack of excitement and, in some extreme cases, the direction of the Republican party and the current administration," Ragnar stated in the report. "We can't just assume they'll turn out on election day for us.

At a University of Texaspoll of hypotheticalSenate contests, a significant number of Paxton and Cornyn voters indicated they were uncertain about backing the party's nominee if their favored candidate fails to win the primary.

Cornyn's supporters have claimed that Paxton's history of controversy and his inexperience in raising funds nationally could hurt the Republicans and make him vulnerable to Democratic criticism. However, in a race where voter turnout is crucial, Paxton's appeal among consistent conservative voters might enable him to win.

Cornyn is truly at odds with the grassroots," said Vinny Minchillo, a key figure at the GOP consulting firm Glass House Strategy. "This is a group that will cast their votes in every election.

If Paxton secures victory in the runoff, he would likely have a strong chance of winning in November within the Republican-leaning state. However, his contentious reputation and limited fundraising abilities thus far could place significant pressure on national Republicans to inject between $100 million and $200 million into his campaign, despite the party's ongoing challenges in other competitive races nationwide, according to Minchillo.

The prolonged Republican campaign has allowed Talarico, the Democratic candidate, to strengthen his financial resources and gain backing from important demographics like Black voters, who largely supported Crockett in the primary.

Talarico has also been working to enhance his attractiveness to centrist voters. In one of his limited policy suggestions during the runoff period, he advocated for removing the gasoline tax and praised Trump for proposing the same idea.

For a brief moment following the first round of the primary, Republicans launched a series of attacks against Talarico, bringing up past tweets and video clips where he expressed liberal opinions on race and gender. He claimed the criticisms took his statements out of context, but he still supported their substance.

After the Republican primary concludes, the GOP will refocus on Talarico, who is competing in his initial statewide campaign.

It's going to be quick and intense," Minchillo said. "I anticipate it's a free-for-all against James Talarico.

--With help from Bill Allison.

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Cornyn and Paxton clash as Texas early voting kicks off

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