The Growing Challenge of Drone Threats in the Baltic States
Recent drone incursions along NATO's eastern flank have highlighted the urgent need for the Baltic states to enhance their air defences. However, experts warn that a lack of equipment and trained personnel across Europe could hinder efforts to close critical gaps in drone detection and response.
Tomas Jermalavičius, head of studies at Estonia's International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS), emphasized that "industrial capacity is the main constraining factor." As countries invest heavily in air and missile defence systems, they are competing for the same radar systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and counter-drone technologies from a limited number of providers. This competition has led to procurement backlogs, rising costs, and extended delivery times, according to Jermalavičius.
Key Components of Effective Drone Response
To effectively respond to a drone threat, military forces require tracking sensors, effectors to neutralize the drone, and an overarching architecture that integrates data from cameras, radar, and acoustic sensors. Federico Borsari, a defence analyst at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), explained that any gap in these elements can complicate the counter-drone process.
The first challenge for the Baltic countries is detecting drones. Current long and medium-range radar systems struggle to distinguish drones from other targets like birds or aircraft due to their low altitude and slow speed. This often leads to confusion and requires the deployment of fighter jets for a closer look, which is both costly and impractical.
Prioritizing Short-Range Technologies
Jermalavičius suggested that the Baltic states should focus on investing in short and very-short range radios to improve drone tracking. He noted that shorter-range radars provide more accurate information, allowing for better identification of threats. These radars could be integrated into the existing Baltic Air Police system, which includes ground-based early-warning and surveillance radars.
However, there are limitations to how many drones can be deployed simultaneously, requiring strict prioritization. While short-range missiles are effective, they are not a complete solution. Over-reliance on them could lead to under-investment in other cost-effective interception methods.
The Limitations of Coverage
Jermalavičius pointed out that no country can provide 100% coverage at all times. Drones will always find ways to bypass defenses, regardless of the measures taken. Countries like the Baltics and Poland understand this but recognize that building robust defences is a long-term process.
Borsari also recommended exploring new technologies such as high-energy lasers, which are affordable and highly effective against drones. However, implementing these solutions faces several challenges.
Barriers to Implementation
One major obstacle is the time it takes to produce and deliver radar systems. Jermalavičius noted that it can take up to 24 months to get a single radar system, making availability a critical factor. Europe faces chronic air defence gaps, with all countries competing for the same equipment and vendors, leading to intense competition.
In addition to radar systems, other essential components for drone detection include acoustic sensors, electro-optical, and infrared sensors—many of which are lacking in Europe. A shortage of skilled personnel further complicates the situation, as small countries with competitive labor markets struggle to attract and retain qualified staff for technical roles.
Integrated Surveillance Systems
Despite these challenges, the Baltic states have developed a well-integrated air surveillance system called Boltnet. This system shares threat detection between Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as with NATO’s integrated air and missile defence systems. If an Estonian radar detects a threat, the information is immediately shared with other Baltic countries and NATO forces to coordinate a response.
Jermalavičius emphasized the need for Boltnet to integrate with other ground actors, such as the Baltic Air Policing and Territorial Defence Forces, to enhance its effectiveness in responding to drone threats.
Conclusion
The Baltic states face significant challenges in strengthening their air defences against drone incursions. While investments in short-range technologies and integrated systems offer promising solutions, the lack of equipment, expertise, and time remains a critical barrier. Addressing these issues will require coordinated efforts and long-term planning to ensure comprehensive protection against evolving threats.
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