Yankees’ Third Base Conundrum

Yankees’ 2027 Outlook: A Rebuilding Puzzle at Third Base and Beyond

The New York Yankees entered the 2024 season with high expectations, boasting a strong regular-season record and a roster packed with star power. Yet, their playoff run ended in heartbreaking fashion—a three-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Division Series (ALDS). That swift exit exposed several critical weaknesses that now demand urgent attention as the team looks ahead to the 2027 season. While the core of the team remains intact, the front office faces a complex offseason landscape involving contract decisions, defensive liabilities, aging veterans, and looming financial constraints.

One of the most pressing areas for improvement lies in the bullpen. The Yankees are poised to lose key arms, including Fernando Cruz, who is expected to be non-tendered due to ongoing injury concerns. Paul Blackburn and closer David Bednar are both entering free agency, adding to the uncertainty. Although Bednar has been a reliable late-inning option, his future with the club remains uncertain. Reports suggest the Yankees may issue him a qualifying offer (QO), which would allow them to receive compensation if he signs elsewhere. However, even if they retain him, the cost of keeping Bednar—whether through the QO or a multi-year deal—will add significant pressure on an already tight payroll.

Beyond the bullpen, the second base and third base positions are under scrutiny. Jazz Chisholm Jr., a fan favorite and versatile contributor, is also a free agent. Despite expressing desire to stay in New York, market forces may pull him elsewhere. In response, the Yankees have reportedly begun exploring alternatives, including shifting Luis Garcia Jr. from first base to second base—though this move would depend heavily on how well Garcia performs defensively and offensively in the coming seasons.

But perhaps the biggest concern lies at third base, where Ryan McMahon’s performance in 2024 was a major disappointment. At 31 years old, McMahon delivered one of the weakest offensive campaigns of his career. Over 124 games, he posted a .213/.279/.357 slash line with a wRC+ of just 78—22% worse than league average. His strikeout rate of 29.4% placed him in the ninth percentile according to Statcast, a troubling trend consistent with his career average of 29.3%. More alarming was his drop in plate discipline: his walk rate plummeted to a career-worst 7.8%, dragging down his on-base percentage to a lackluster .279.

Power production also declined sharply. After hitting 20 or more home runs in six of the past seven seasons (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign), McMahon managed only 11 dingers in 2024. His isolated power (.143) fell below the MLB average of .156, marking another career low. On a team level, the Yankees’ third base position ranked fifth-worst in wRC+ among all teams, tied with the Miami Marlins.

Defensively, McMahon’s decline was equally concerning. Though he had previously been valued for his glove work—posting +10 Defensive Runs Saved and +7 Outs Above Average in 2025—he regressed dramatically in 2024, finishing at -3 DRS and 0 OAA. While Statcast still acknowledged his range ability in certain situations, his overall defensive metrics were closer to average rather than elite. This drop in defensive value, combined with his offensive struggles, reduced his total fWAR to a replacement-level 0.5—down from his previous annual average of 2.3 fWAR from 2021 to 2025.

Despite these shortcomings, McMahon remains durable. He played at least 151 games every season from 2021 to 2025 and appeared in 124 games in 2024, missing time only due to a throat infection in late June and a left thumb sprain in late August—his first trips to the injured list in over seven years. These weren’t lower-body injuries that typically affect mobility, so they don’t explain the loss of range or athleticism. Whether this downturn is a temporary blip or the beginning of age-related decline remains unclear. Still, it’s increasingly difficult to envision McMahon as the Yankees’ full-time third baseman in 2027.

He is currently under contract for $16 million, which, while not the highest on the roster (seventh-highest), represents a substantial investment for a player whose offensive and defensive contributions no longer match the price tag. The Yankees face a dilemma: cutting ties could save money but might leave a hole in the lineup, especially given their other offseason priorities.

If they retain Bednar, either via the QO or a lucrative long-term deal, the payroll will swell further. Adding bullpen reinforcements will likely be necessary, even if pitching coach Matt Blake has historically found value in lesser-known arms. The team may still need to spend in free agency to strengthen the pen.

Additionally, if Garcia Jr. moves to second base, the Yankees would need a backup plan. Anthony Volpe, their next-best internal option, has struggled offensively and lacks consistency. Meanwhile, Giancarlo Stanton enters the final year of his massive 13-year, $325 million deal signed with the Marlins in 2014. The 36-year-old (turning 37 in November) is owed $25 million in 2025, with a $10 million buyout on a 2028 club option. The Marlins will cover $20 million of that, leaving the Yankees responsible for $15 million in guaranteed money.

After another injury-plagued season, and with Ben Rice and Aaron Judge emerging as DH candidates, there’s growing speculation that the Yankees may absorb the remaining salary and release Stanton. This would be financially painful, especially given the team’s projected luxury tax payroll of $282.1 million for 2027—projected to rise with arbitration pay raises estimated at $36.7 million by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

In either case—whether facing the highest luxury tax tier or adapting to a potential salary cap under new CBA negotiations—the Yankees must find ways to reduce dead money. Retaining both McMahon and Stanton would make that nearly impossible. From a baseball standpoint, though, the Yankees simply cannot afford to ignore the third base position if they hope to mount a serious challenge in 2027. Finding a viable replacement for McMahon in free agency will be one of their toughest tasks yet.

Evaluating the Yankees’ Third Base Dilemma: A Strategic Crossroads

As the New York Yankees assess their infield options for the upcoming season, the decision at third base has become one of the most pressing roster questions in baseball. With Anthony Rendon’s departure and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Anthony Rizzo’s health, the team is left navigating a complex landscape of available talent—both internal and external. At the center of this puzzle is Teruaki Sato, a Japanese-born infielder who has emerged as one of the most sought-after free agents on the market, not just at third base but across all positions.

Sato, known for his elite contact skills, defensive versatility, and consistent offensive production, represents a high-upside upgrade over current options. His ability to hit for average, draw walks, and play premium defense at multiple infield spots makes him an ideal fit for a team looking to build a balanced lineup. However, such talent doesn’t come without cost. Sato is expected to command a significant contract, likely in the $100 million range or more, depending on market demand and his performance history. This could strain the Yankees’ payroll, especially with other looming commitments like Aaron Judge’s extension and the need to re-sign key relievers.

Given the financial implications, the Yankees may look to alternative paths. One option is to retain Gleyber Torres, who has shown flashes of brilliance but remains inconsistent at the plate and prone to injury. Another possibility is promoting Austin Wells, though he lacks major league experience and would face an immediate adjustment period. The team might also consider shifting players around—such as moving DJ LeMahieu to third base—but that would compromise their already thin outfield depth.

The trade market offers a few intriguing alternatives. Isaac Paredes, currently under contract with the Houston Astros, stands out as a viable candidate. He carries a $13.35 million club option for the 2024 season, which converts into a mutual option if he finishes in the top ten of AL MVP voting—a rare incentive that underscores the Astros’ confidence in his value. Regardless of the outcome, Paredes is in his final year of team control, making him a prime trade target. The Astros, facing a rebuild in the near term, may be open to dealing him for prospects or young pitching, especially if they see a path toward future contention. Paredes brings power, solid defense, and a proven track record against right-handed pitching, making him a strong fit for the Yankees’ middle of the order.

Meanwhile, Royce Lewis of the Minnesota Twins and Nolan Gorman of the St. Louis Cardinals are both considered rebound candidates. Lewis, once a highly-touted prospect, has struggled with consistency and injuries since his debut. Yet, he still possesses elite athleticism and a strong arm, offering upside if he can regain his form. Gorman, meanwhile, has shown promising power numbers in limited time but lacks polish defensively and struggles with strikeouts. Both players represent low-cost, high-reward gambles, but neither is a surefire solution.

Ultimately, the Yankees must weigh the risks and rewards of each path. Retaining C.C. McMahon—whose defensive prowess is undeniable but whose bat has faltered—is a short-term fix that could undermine long-term goals. McMahon’s .695 OPS post-Judge injury was among the worst in the league, and his inability to contribute offensively exposed a critical weakness in the lineup. After Judge’s season-ending rib injury, the Yankees’ offense plummeted to a 93 wRC+, tied for fifth-worst in Major League Baseball. That dropoff underscores the urgency of addressing the issue.

The bottom line? Upgrading from McMahon won’t be easy. But failing to do so could leave the Yankees vulnerable in a competitive American League. Building a deeper, more dynamic lineup requires bold decisions—whether that means pursuing a star like Sato, acquiring a trade chip like Paredes, or taking a calculated risk on a player like Lewis or Gorman. Whatever the path, the Yankees cannot afford to remain stagnant.

With the postseason window still within reach, every move counts. The front office will need to balance ambition with fiscal responsibility, while keeping an eye on both immediate needs and long-term sustainability. The third base situation is more than just a positional problem—it’s a litmus test for the organization’s commitment to building a championship-caliber team. The choices made now will define the Yankees’ trajectory for years to come.

Share :