Philippine Authorities are taking strict measures against the spread of false information about ex-President Rodrigo Duterte. Duterte , but analysts warn that this could backfire by further entrenching his supporters' beliefs and deepening the country's political divide.
The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) stated earlier this week that they were looking into allegations against approximately 20 vloggers who are suspected of various wrongdoings. spreading falsehoods online surrounding Duterte being arrested by the International Criminal Court including assertions that the arrests lacked warrants and were illegal, as well as manufactured statements of endorsement bearing the logos of global news organizations.
The NBI director, Jaime Santiago, stated that those vloggers could be charged with cyber libel and incitement to sedition. Currently, arrest warrants have been issued for two of them.
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Meta has removed the Facebook pages of Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI) due to "promoting hatred and contempt." SMNI is the media entity associated with the well-known evangelist. Apollo Quiboloy , an associate of Duterte facing allegations of fraud and human trafficking both in the Philippines and the United States.
Witnesses informed This Week in Asia that this dissemination of misinformation seemed orchestrated.
Gary Ador Dionisio, dean of the De La Salle – College of Saint Benilde's School of Diplomacy and Governance, noted that the misinformation was intended to "undermine the legitimacy of the arrest, tarnish the credibility of the case, and fracture our nation."
He pointed out the choice of words employed by members of Duterte's team—for instance, his daughter stating that her father had been “kidnapped” when boarding a plane bound for The Hague, along with Senator Bong Go asserting that the arrest was seen as an infringement upon the nation’s autonomy.
Matthew David Ordonez, who teaches political science at De La Salle University, stated that "if a third-party company outside the control of the Marcos administration intervened with SMNI, this suggests extremely high levels of divisive rhetoric and misinformation."
According to Gino Trinidad, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, these false assertions aim to elicit compassion for Duterte.
The social media posts neither refute the possible guilt of the ex-president nor promote a story suggesting his likely innocence. Instead, many of these posts emphasize how Rodrigo Duterte, acting like a father figure for the country, aimed to prevent a crisis by doing what he believed was necessary, even if it meant allowing the deaths of potentially countless innocent people, " he stated to This Week in Asia.
Doubling down
Ordenez stated that the Duterte camp probably intensified their efforts to boost social media presence and populist charm aggressively as they faced setbacks in their legal battles and geared up for an extended media conflict with the government.
The aim of these actions is not to inform but to incite... They might recognize that the outcomes of the ICC trial lie beyond their influence. Primarily, their objective is to bolster their supporters and counterattack adversaries, be it during the midterm elections or via the power of their online demonstrations and nationwide assemblies,” stated Ordonez, who also mentioned that the Duterte camp could “unify their forces to safeguard the surviving members of the Duterte clan along with their associates.”
Dionisio mentioned that Duterte's supporters might be urging his backers to protest against his trial—despite the ICC lawyers' opinion that these online efforts, like flooding ICC judges’ social media accounts with messages, could potentially harm his prospects for provisional liberty.
"Misinformation disseminates akin to smoke; the primary objective is such that even if President Duterte is convicted in the coming years, it will firmly plant itself in his supporters’ minds that not the slightest bit of accuracy or legitimate justification existed regarding this arrest," he stated.
Current polls indicate that many Filipinos back the ICC investigation; however, these misleading stories could potentially shift public favor toward Duterte.
A survey conducted by Social Weather Stations and organized by the think tank Stratbase Group was published on Wednesday. It showed that 51% of Filipinos believed the previous president should face consequences for the deaths associated with their administration’s anti-drug operations, whereas 25% did not agree.
A report by WR Numero in March 2024 indicated that 59 percent agreed with the investigation, and sixty percent felt that Ferdinand Marcos Jnr His administration should focus on collaborating with the ICC.
However, Dionisio cautioned against becoming too comfortable, stating that the turnaround could occur "perhaps within a month" should the administration fail to launch a counter-attack.
He suggested that the government should organize a discussion or a town hall meeting to clarify the situation and encourage an open exchange of ideas. However, he emphasized that the primary focus should be providing a platform for the families of those who have been affected by the drug war.
Ordóñez played down the likelihood of the Marcos administration suffering significant damage to its reputation, noting that its approval ratings are "already declining and likely insufficient to impair the executive branch’s ability to operate effectively."
Nevertheless, he warned that the misinformation might pose a risk to the administration's Senate candidates during the midterm elections in May—especially if the Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, the former president’s daughter, turns into a crucial moment in the "Marcos-Duterte conflict."
He stated, "Due to this uproar, Duterte supporters might feel compelled to cast their votes for pro-Duterte candidates to protect Vice President Sara from potential impeachment and ultimately help elevate her to the presidency in order to reclaim their lost political influence."
Moreover, according to Trinidad, a significant number of Filipinos, whether residing domestically or overseas, backed Duterte's anti-drug campaign.
"Some individuals strongly believe in the ethical correctness of the previous president’s deeds, and such people could also sway others,” he noted.
Considering the massive amount and breadth of these online postings, it would be impracticable for authorities to attempt regulating them, according to Ordonez. He also warned that efforts to verify misinformation could potentially have the opposite effect, strengthening the convictions of those who support such content.
He mentioned it may not be something to fret over. The pro-Duterte material "might not lead to more people opposing the ICC." This could be due to the nation’s ongoing struggle with misinformation, which suggests possible "declining impact" and "activist exhaustion," he explained.
The sensitive topic might lead participants to opt for non-involvement... choosing to stay neutral due to hesitation or uncertainty instead of picking a position because of their fears or mixed feelings," he explained.
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