By Simon Mulongo
The crucial meeting between Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and DR Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi in Qatar goes beyond being merely another diplomatic initiative aimed at addressing the intensifying conflict in eastern DR Congo.
This indicates a broader shift in geopolitics, with dominance on the battleground, changing partnerships, and escalating global influence shaping the destiny of the Great Lakes area.
As Rwanda and the M23 solidify their positions on the battlefield, Kinshasa finds itself grappling with the challenge of formulating a successful military or diplomatic counter-strategy.
The dependence on Qatari mediation highlights the inadequacy of "African solutions for African problems," as local mechanisms continue to be marginalized and fail to influence the conflict’s resolution.
The question still stands: Is this meeting a true route to peace, or merely a strategic lull aimed at gaining time before the subsequent stage of confrontation? Kagame’s approach in Qatar embodies Rwanda’s shrewd diplomatic tactics—negotiating with power while keeping surface-level compromises intact.
Rwanda uses diplomacy as a strategic instrument to maintain supremacy and operational agility.
The 2002 Pretoria Agreement led to Rwanda’s troop withdrawal, yet the persistent Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda threat justified Kigali’s continued influence. ;
Likewise, the 2013 Kampala talks failed to address M23's concerns, allowing it to resurface and strengthening Rwanda's position. Could Rwanda have followed a similar strategy in Doha—maintaining control without ceding authority but increasing its strategic clout in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo instead?
This year’s gathering in Qatar continues with the same approach. Given M23's most robust military stance over the past ten years, Kagame has joined talks neither due to urgency nor weakness, but to solidify achievements and ease escalating diplomatic scrutiny from Western nations.
By controlling the timing and conditions of engagement, Kigali ensures that any settlement aligns with its long-term strategic objectives.
The operational dominance of M23 in eastern DR Congo highlights the persistent shortcomings of Kinshasa’s traditionally conventional military strategies. Comprising between 5,000 and 7,500 seasoned fighters, M23 conducts rapid, asymmetrical battles, capitalizing on the FARDC’s disjointed and politically influenced leadership structure.
Unlike FARDC’s static positional defences, M23 employs fluid maneuver warfare, synchronised multi-vector offensives and rapid force projection — tactics reminiscent of Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic Front during its 1990-1994 insurgency. ;
Intelligence-led targeting and flexible pacing enable M23 to control battlefield circumstances, making quantitatively stronger opponents both operationally inactive and strategically irrelevant.
By asserting control over the Goma-Rutshuru corridor, M23 has significantly hindered Kinshasa’s capacity to exert military influence in the area.
The FARDC's dependence on a disjointed and ineffective Southern African Development Community force has brutally highlighted Kinshasa's strategic weaknesses.
Currently, the situation at the theater is shaped by M23’s tactical moves, causing Kinshasa to adopt a defensive stance, aimlessly drifting without clear strategic guidance amid growing hostility.
Even though Rwanda excels both militarily and diplomatically, President Kagame now encounters growing global opposition. The high-profile desertion of key Rwandan envoys to Europe, notably Belgium, indicates divisions within Kigali’s overseas corps, as officials prefer seeking refuge abroad instead of going back home.
These departures, which involve senior figures with access to sensitive government information, suggest internal disagreement and strategic doubt. Belgium offering asylum to escaping diplomats, after Rwanda severed diplomatic ties, represents an uncommon criticism from the West. Additionally, EU sanctions targeting Rwandan officials connected to M23 could limit Kagame’s international maneuvering space, pushing him toward significant diplomatic adjustments.
Amid growing Western oversight, Rwanda is shifting towards Qatar as part of a strategic realignment. Over the past few years, Doha has developed both economic and political relationships with Kigali, providing Rwanda with a fresh diplomatic ally that remains largely unaffected by Western influence.
Rwanda’s strengthening ties with Qatar, notably in the sectors of aviation and infrastructure, offers President Kagame additional economic and political support as his country’s relationships with Europe and the United States encounter increasing tension.
The mediation efforts led by Qatar might not result in an instant solution, yet they mark a crucial turning point for everyone concerned. Upcoming developments may hinge on three significant outcomes that have the potential to mold the future scenario.
Initially, Kagame may push for M23’s participation in peace negotiations, which would lend them official recognition without weakening their armed capabilities. Secondly, Tshisekedi’s reliance on Qatari mediation indicates a waning trust in Africa-driven solutions; should this approach succeed, it could reshape diplomatic strategies across the Great Lakes area.
In conclusion, should negotiations fall through, Rwanda might escalate military operations against the M23 rebels, which could lead Kinshasa to make impulsive choices and worsen the ongoing humanitarian emergency. To summarize, the discussions held in Qatar underscore an essential reality: Conflict serves as another avenue for political engagement.
Kagame, being a strategic thinker, recognizes the importance of turning military victories into diplomatic achievements. Conversely, Tshisekedi seems more responsive, depending on outside help as the situation escalates out of his control.
The supremacy of M23, Rwanda’s shift in diplomacy, and Kinshasa’s diminishing approach indicate that the continuing conflict is largely defined by how military circumstances influence political directions.
Qatar’s mediation efforts will decide whether a long-term resolution comes about or if the conflict simply readies itself for another phase on the battleground.
The conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has transcended its local boundaries to become a complex regional issue, necessitating expertise in warfare and diplomatic strategies for any solution.
The author serves as a governance and security consultant at EMANS Frontiers Ltd. .
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Provided by Syndigate Media Inc. ( Syndigate.info ).
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