Al-Shabaab has evolved beyond being merely a terrorist organization conducting occasional assaults; now, it is seizing key urban areas, gradually advancing towards the capital, and transitioning into a de facto governing body. Concurrently, Somalia’s federal framework is disintegrating, its political leadership is fragmented, and external observers are largely passive spectators.
If Mogadishu falls, this won’t merely be a Somali crisis—it could destabilize the whole Horn of Africa region. The warning signals are clear, but those in authority appear unaware of the approaching tempest.
For many years, Al-Shabaab was known for its brutal bombings and killings, but things have shifted. It is no longer merely a terrorist uprising; it is evolving into an alternate form of governance.
In the cities they have taken over, Al-Shabaab is implementing Sharia law, imposing taxation, and offering protection services, whereas Somalia’s government continues to be feeble and fragmented. Contrary to earlier practices, the organization now refrains from mass killings of civilians and has set its sights on a single objective: seizing control of Mogadishu and establishing an Islamic state.
This isn’t merely an extremist movement; it’s a power dynamic changing right before our eyes.
As Al-Shabaab makes gains, the Somali government is crumbling internally. Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership, his administration is not bringing the nation together—it is causing it to fracture further.
The relationships between Mogadishu and regions like Puntland, along with Jubaland, have worsened recently due to claims that the president is altering the federal constitution to bolster their personal power.
The delicate national framework is breaking down as local governments decline to collaborate, and pervasive internal corruption is undermining the armed forces' capacity to counterattack. Rather than addressing the critical danger presented by Al-Shabaab, Somalia’s leaders are preoccupied with political rivalries and jockeying for power.
In simple terms, the nation's leadership is preoccupied with internal conflicts rather than taking action against Al-Shabaab.
Crisis Beyond Somalia
Should Mogadishu fall, the repercussions would extend well past Somalia’s boundaries. Given Kenya has already suffered from lethal assaults by Al-Shabaab, it could experience an uptick in turmoil near its northeast frontier.
Struggling with its own security issues, Ethiopia faces an impending destabilization that might erode its national unity even more. In contrast, Somaliland, which governs itself stably and autonomously, views the increasing influence of Al-Shabaab as a clear menace to its stability and safety.
Even major players like the United States and Europe have started paying attention—otherwise, why would airlines such as Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways halt their flights to Mogadishu? These entities recognize something that Somali leadership seems unwilling to admit: the city’s safety can no longer be guaranteed.
If Somalia's capital city fails to safeguard a visiting head of state, how can it hope to protect its own citizens?
The official visit of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was intended to be a significant diplomatic achievement. However, it turned into an embarrassment for Somalia. Just moments after he arrived at Aden Adde International Airport in Mogadishu, the city was hit by a mortar assault. This incident demonstrates that despite enhanced safety measures, Mogadishu remains too risky for high-profile international visitors.
Earlier this week, Al Shabaab fighters tried to assault Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud by detonating a bomb aimed at his convoy as it was traveling through Mogadishu.
Even though Al Shabaab regularly conducts assaults in Somalia as part of their ongoing effort to topple the administration, this latest incident marked the first time they specifically targeted the president since 2014, during his initial tenure. This earlier occurrence involved an assault on a hotel where he was delivering a speech.
If Mogadishu cannot safeguard a visiting head of state and its own president, how can it hope to protect its citizens?
If Al-Shabaab advances into Mogadishu, the situation might mirror the Taliban’s seizure of Kabul in 2021. This could lead to an abrupt downfall of the Somali government, with Al-Shabaab proclaiming themselves as the rightful authority over Somalia.
The outcomes could be devastating—a fundamentalist Islamic regime emerging in the Horn of Africa, a worldwide refuge for extremists, and an unprecedented human suffering crisis. The international community failed to heed the warnings from Afghanistan. Could history repeat itself with Somalia facing a similar destiny?
Last Chance for Somalia
Somalia is quickly running out of time. The fragmented federal partnership needs to be mended, reintegrating regions like Puntland and Jubaland. It’s essential to overhaul the military by removing corrupt officials linked to Al-Shabaab and bolstering overall national security. The global community cannot remain passive—they must urgently intervene with both military aid and financial assistance before the situation escalates further.
The Somali people merit more from a government that remains vigilant as their capital faces threats. Should Mogadishu fall, it would not be due to Al-Shabaab’s overwhelming power but rather because of the ineptitude of Somalia's leadership.
The decision is evident: either we battle for Mogadishu at present, or we lament its downfall indefinitely. AS
Adam Daud Ahmed serves as a political and security commentator for the Horn of Africa region.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. Syndigate.info ).
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