The Evolving Role of Drones in Modern Warfare: Redefining, Not Replacing, Human Involvement
Recent advancements in drone and robotic technology are undeniably transforming the landscape of modern warfare. Major military powers, including China and the United States, are developing sophisticated technologies, ranging from robotic dogs to advanced drones, which could significantly impact future battlefields. While humans may increasingly operate from command centers far removed from direct combat, analysts emphasize that humans will remain central to decision-making and combat operations.
China's ambition to modernize its military has included a strong focus on drone technology. Years ago, Chinese leadership emphasized the profound impact of unmanned operations on the nature of warfare, urging the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to accelerate the adoption of drone technology. Similarly, the United States has explored strategies involving drone swarms for defensive purposes. Some voices have even suggested that investment in traditional crewed weapon systems is becoming obsolete compared to the potential of drones.
Despite the apparent advantages of autonomous weapons, such as reducing human casualties and costs, major military powers continue to invest heavily in crewed systems like sixth-generation fighter jets. This investment reflects the understanding that these advanced aircraft, working in conjunction with "loyal wingmen" drones, are crucial for achieving air superiority.
Analysts argue that traditional systems cannot be entirely replaced due to limitations such as the vulnerability of drones to jamming and the ethical considerations surrounding fully autonomous systems. According to Kateryna Bondar, an AI and military expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, drones augment human capabilities but have not replaced people or traditional platforms. She emphasizes that even in air and maritime domains, where drones offer range and persistence advantages, manned platforms remain central.
Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has vividly demonstrated the capabilities of drones in modern warfare. Both sides have deployed unmanned systems extensively. Ukrainian drones have notably proven effective against elements of the Russian Black Sea fleet. However, despite their successes, Ukraine is reportedly losing thousands of drones per month, primarily due to jamming, highlighting that they are not a guaranteed solution.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, notes that while drones have been highly effective in Ukraine, their limitations are clear. Manned aircraft continue to play a vital role, such as commanding and controlling drones from the air, providing a better view and understanding of the battlespace. Moreover, manned aircraft are less susceptible to jamming.
Bondar observes that while the scale of drone deployment in Ukraine is unprecedented, it has not rendered conventional systems obsolete. Victory on the battlefield still depends on factors like volume of fire, logistical sustainment, and the effectiveness of combined arms operations. In naval warfare, uncrewed surface and underwater vehicles offer new capabilities but are typically controlled and coordinated from a manned vessel, which remains the strategic and command hub.
Manned-Unmanned Teaming: The Best of Both Worlds
Military strategists are increasingly exploring manned-unmanned teaming, where humans and autonomous systems work together. The U.S. Next Generation Air Dominance program, featuring the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet, aims to create a "system of systems" with a manned aircraft at its center controlling drones. China is also believed to be developing similar capabilities with its sixth-generation fighters, potentially using them to fly with drones.
The PLA is exploring the use of "loyal wingmen" drones in tandem with its J-20 stealth fighters. This approach is also being pursued by other nations, including Britain, Italy, and Japan, under their Global Combat Air Programme. Similarly, the Future Combat Air System, led by France, Germany, and Spain, aims to create a cutting-edge "system of systems" that includes a sixth-generation stealth fighter paired with unmanned aerial vehicles.
Russia is developing a heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle, known as Okhotnik, to coordinate with its fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jet.
Bondar emphasizes that manned-unmanned teaming combines the best of both worlds: human judgment and machine speed. Drones offer scale, persistence, and lower risk, but they still rely on human command for strategic decision-making and moral judgment in complex combat environments.
Heath adds that manned aircraft in close proximity to drone swarms allow for better situational awareness and reduce the risks of communication disruption between drones and human controllers.
Limitations and Ethical Dilemmas
Despite their advancements, drone swarms have limitations. Payload, range, communications, and AI capabilities all present challenges. The more payload a drone carries, the shorter its range. Achieving true autonomy, especially in contested environments, is extremely difficult.
Vulnerability to jamming is a significant limitation. Some drones rely on wired communications, which limits their operational range. Rapid and adaptive decision-making remains a challenge, where human pilots excel.
The military use of drones also raises ethical concerns. Autonomous targeting can lead to misjudgments, potentially harming civilians. For now, decision-making cannot be fully handed over to machines; humans must continue to supervise and control drones.
Bondar argues that AI-driven decision-making should not advance too rapidly among major military powers. She emphasizes that the real challenge is not just technical but also ethical and institutional, raising questions about how far AI should be allowed to go and who gets to decide.
Thorsten Jelinek, an expert on artificial intelligence, argues for the urgent need for international guard rails, such as agreements on restricting AI for combat or at least informing other parties about capabilities. The United Nations has called for progress on a global framework to regulate the use of autonomous weapons, aiming to produce a set of guiding principles.
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