Growth Spat: NBS Figures Challenged

Nigeria's Economy Shows Growth, But Concerns Remain

Nigeria's economy experienced a notable upswing in the second quarter of 2025, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increasing by 4.23 percent year-on-year in real terms. This figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics, represents a stronger performance than the 3.48 percent growth recorded during the same period in 2024, indicating a positive trajectory despite ongoing structural obstacles. The bureau attributed the quarterly estimates to the rebasing of the GDP, using 2019 as the base year, which allows for more accurate comparisons and tracking of expansion across various sectors.

The report highlights that previous quarterly GDP estimates were benchmarked to the rebased annual figures to align the old series with the new, rebased estimates. This process provided a revised quarterly GDP series, which was then compared to the estimates for the second quarter of 2025.

Labor Unions Express Skepticism

However, the reported growth figures have been met with skepticism from senior officials within the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC). These officials argue that the statistics fail to reflect the deteriorating conditions faced by workers and households across the country.

One NLC official, speaking anonymously, questioned the real-world impact of the GDP growth. "When we talk about GDP growth, the key question is how it impacts the lives of the people," they stated. "If the figure is in doubt, or if it does not translate into better living conditions, then it is meaningless. That is what we call growth without development."

The official further suggested that the GDP figures, based on the 2019 rebasing, are being manipulated in anticipation of upcoming elections. They emphasized that statistics that do not reflect the realities on the ground are of little value to the citizenry, asserting that any economic indicator failing to capture reality loses credibility.

Another senior NLC official criticized Nigeria's reported unemployment data, which places the jobless rate at approximately four percent. The official dismissed this figure as a fabrication designed to mask the impact of unsuccessful policies imposed on developing countries. "We know unemployment is far higher than four percent," they stated. "So as long as these statistics fail to reflect reality, they are useless for economic planning."

The union leader questioned the tangible impact of the reported 4.23 percent GDP growth on the lives of ordinary Nigerians. "Do you see the 4.23 percent GDP growth in your life? I don’t," they asserted. "Conditions are worsening, workers are suffering, yet officials claim the economy is growing. The economy is not growing. An economy must be managed for the people. When it is not, politicians invent stories to justify their claims, and this is one of them."

Sectoral Performance and Economic Drivers

Despite the concerns raised by labor unions, the NBS report provides a detailed breakdown of the economy's performance across various sectors. The nominal value of the economy stood at N100.73 trillion, a significant increase from N84.48 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, representing a 19.23 percent rise.

• Oil Sector Rebound: A significant portion of the growth was attributed to the oil sector, which experienced a rebound due to increased crude oil production. Average daily production rose to 1.68 million barrels per day, compared to 1.41 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2024 and 1.62 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025. This surge propelled the oil sector's real growth to 20.46 percent, a substantial turnaround from the 1.87 percent recorded in the previous quarter. The oil sector's contribution to the overall economy also increased, rising to 4.05 percent from 3.51 percent a year earlier.
• Mining and Quarrying: The broader mining and quarrying sector, encompassing crude petroleum, coal, and other minerals, also demonstrated strong performance, expanding by 20.86 percent in real terms. Quarrying activities saw a remarkable increase of 50.41 percent, while coal mining grew by 32.59 percent.
• Non-Oil Sector Dominance: Despite the oil sector's strong rebound, the non-oil economy remained the dominant force, accounting for 95.95 percent of total output. The non-oil sector grew by 3.64 percent in real terms, compared to 3.26 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and 3.19 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Key drivers of this expansion included agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, finance, trade, construction, and energy-related services. Agriculture grew by 2.82 percent, a recovery from the marginal 0.07 percent reported in the first quarter, although its share of the economy slightly decreased to 26.17 percent from 26.53 percent a year earlier.
• Industry and Services: The industrial sector recorded growth of 7.45 percent, more than double the 3.72 percent growth in the same period last year. However, manufacturing growth slowed to 1.60 percent, and its share of GDP decreased to 7.81 percent. Construction expanded by 5.27 percent but contracted on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The services sector grew by 3.94 percent, up from 3.83 percent in the same quarter of 2024.
• Specific Sector Contributions: Trade contributed 18.28 percent to the economy, although growth slowed to 1.29 percent from 1.82 percent a year ago. Information and communication rose by 6.61 percent, contributing 11.18 percent to GDP, while finance and insurance surged by 16.13 percent, raising its share to 3.23 percent. Transportation and storage experienced significant growth of 22.09 percent, higher than the 0.56 percent contribution recorded in the previous year. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply also expanded by 11.47 percent, while water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation grew by 10.60 percent.

Government Objectives and Expert Opinions

Earlier in July 2025, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy emphasized the need for Nigeria to achieve at least a seven percent annual economic growth rate to significantly improve the lives of its poorest and most vulnerable citizens. The minister reiterated this objective, linking it to the government's broader economic agenda.

Economists, such as Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, have expressed optimism about Nigeria's economic recovery. He noted the improvement in GDP figures from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2025, attributing it to the positive impact of government policies.

Private Sector Concerns

Despite the positive GDP figures, members of the organized private sector have urged the government to prioritize growth in the real sector of the economy. They have voiced concerns that the macroeconomic growth is not translating into tangible benefits for households and businesses.

Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners, cautioned that the growth was not being reflected in the lives of average citizens or businesses. He described the state of the real sector, particularly manufacturing, as a "red flag," warning that the collapse of smaller businesses could exacerbate hardship. Egbesola also pointed out the contraction in trade, citing reduced consumer purchasing power and persistent trade barriers as key challenges.

Segun Kuti-George, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, emphasized that real sector growth remained the critical yardstick for measuring economic progress, urging that more attention be given to it.