The prolonged US government shutdown has thrown a spanner in the works for crucial economic data releases, with the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs reports now looking highly unlikely to see the light of day. The record-breaking 43-day shutdown meant that the dedicated data collectors at government agencies were unable to do their jobs, leaving a significant gap in our understanding of the US economy's health.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt articulated the administration's concerns, stating, "The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released, and all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period."
Economic Indicators in Peril
Economists had been bracing for the possibility that these vital reports, which serve as key barometers for inflation and the broader economic landscape, would be unavailable. The deadlock in federal funding negotiations on Capitol Hill resulted in public services being pared back to a bare minimum for six weeks, directly impacting the ability to gather and publish this essential information.
While the administration has since confirmed that September's jobs report will be published shortly – as the data was collected before the shutdown officially kicked off on October 1 – the October figures remain uncertain.
What We Know (and Don't Know)
The White House, when approached for further comment, referred to remarks made by Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, during a Fox News interview. Hassett expressed the difficulty of the situation, saying, "We’ll maybe be able to concoct something but we’ll never actually know for sure what the unemployment rate was in October."
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has indicated that it plans to announce revised release dates for reports once the shutdown is over, as and when they become available. However, they have cautioned that "it may take time to fully assess the situation."
The Latest Official Figures
As it stands, the most recent official jobs report made public by the Trump administration is from August. This report, released on September 5, painted a rather grim picture:
- The US economy added a mere 22,000 jobs in August.
- Unemployment climbed to a four-year high of 4.3 percent.
This report was particularly noteworthy as it was the first government assessment of the labour market to be released after President Trump's controversial dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. Trump had previously accused her of issuing "phony" numbers in her July report, which had indicated that the economy had added 73,000 jobs that month – a better outcome than the August figures.
Historical Parallels
This is not the first time a government shutdown has impacted economic data. The first report to emerge after the major shutdown in Trump's first term, which lasted from late December 2018 to January 2019 and was, at 35 days, the longest in American history until recently, also delivered discouraging news. In February 2019, hiring experienced a significant tumble, coupled with a slight dip in the unemployment rate, and the economy added just 20,000 jobs.
Implications for Policymakers and Markets
While the absence of the October 2025 economic numbers might temporarily spare the president from further negative headlines, assuming the economic slowdown has continued, it presents a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve. The Fed relies heavily on these official statistics to inform its crucial decisions regarding monetary policy.
However, the Fed may have to look to alternative sources. Private sector entities, such as ADP, have released their own figures. ADP's report indicated that the US added 42,000 jobs in October. While this represents an improvement on August's numbers, it still falls considerably short of the job creation figures that reportedly incensed President Trump to the point of firing the BLS commissioner.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the potential impact of the data void, describing it as "a temporary state of affairs" in late October. He likened the situation to driving in fog: "If you ask me, ‘Could it affect the December meeting?’ I’m not saying it’s going to, but... what do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down." This suggests a cautious approach from the central bank as they navigate this period of uncertainty.
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