What Americans Believe About Election Policy and the 2026 Race Ahead

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Earlier this year, we questioned a panel of electoral specialistswhat concerns they had regarding the management of the 2026 midterm elections. Now, let's see how the American public is feeling.

Numerous surveys over the past few months have inquired about public trust in the electoral process, the probability of voter fraud, and whether election regulations should be modified. The answers are not easily grouped: A significant number express concerns about fraud and back measures to eliminate it, yet they also fear the exclusion of voters and resist federal involvement in elections.

Polls: A significant number of Americans worry about election fraud

With President Donald Trump still promoting fears of extensive voter fraud in the midterms — even though his assertions about previous elections have been consistently refuted — roughly half of Americans report having such concerns. According to anIpsos/Reuters pollheld from April 15 to 20, 46% of American adults supported the claim that non-citizens cast numerous fake votes in U.S. elections, while 50% expressed strong or some concern about unauthorized voters casting ballots in the midterms.

Trump's criticisms of mail voting have also influenced the broader population: A similar survey revealed that 53% of adults were worried about fake mail-in or absentee ballots during the midterms.

More generally, a Marist University/NPR/PBS News pollheld from March 2-4 revealed that half of the adults believed it was probable that voter fraud would occur in the November elections. In comparison, none of the experts in their informal survey considered it likely that a large number of ineligible voters would vote in 2026.Studies have repeatedly shownthose non-citizen voting and mail-in voter fraud areexceedingly rare.

It's crucial to examine polls collectively, as not all surveys indicate that such a significant portion of Americans have been swayed by Trump's assertions. In aYouGov/CBS News pollHeld from March 16 to 19, only 23% of adults believed that noncitizens vote "a lot" in federal elections, while an extra 27% said they do so "sometimes." Additionally, 32% felt that voter fraud and irregularities were commonly present in U.S. elections; 57% believed they happened only in a few isolated cases, and just 11% stated there was absolutely no voter fraud or irregularities.

Nevertheless, 38% of YouGov/CBS News participants believed that a significant amount of fraud occurs when ballots are submitted by mail, in contrast to only 13% who held the same view about in-person voting. Additionally, 42% considered ineligible individuals voting as a "major issue" — not quite half, but a considerable portion.

It comes as no surprise that the segment of the population most prone to worry about election fraud are Republicans. For instance, 54% of Republicans believed there was significant fraud and irregularities in U.S. elections, while only 14% of Democrats and 28% of independents shared this view. Additionally, 69% of Republicans considered ineligible voters to be a major issue, compared to 20% of Democrats and 39% of independents.

Americans are also concerned about access to voting, the presence of federal troops, and efforts to challenge election outcomes.

Although fraud is not the only issue Americans worry about regarding elections, all three polls revealed that more people are concerned about disenfranchisement than fraud. In the Ipsos/Reuters survey, 57% expressed being very or somewhat worried about eligible voters being stopped from voting, while 44% of participants in the YouGov/CBS News poll considered this a significant issue. Additionally, Marist reported that 58% of adults believe it is likely that many voters will arrive at the polls in 2026 only to be told they are ineligible.

In terms of the balance between voting access and security, Americans tend to slightly favor access. When Marist asked participants which issue worried them more, 59% expressed concern about "ensuring that everyone who wants to vote is able to do so," whereas 41% were more concerned about "ensuring that no one who isn't eligible votes."

This sentiment is also evident in Americans' resistance to having federal agents stationed at voting locations. According to Ipsos/Reuters, a majority of people are against the notion of federal law enforcement being present at polling stations, with 55% opposing compared to 40%, and they are even more against deploying National Guard troops there, with 67% against versus 28%. However, in the Marist poll, only 54% of adults were against having the National Guard at polling places, while 46% were in favor. The variation could be due to the fact that Marist mentioned the National Guard would be there "to monitor November's election," highlighting how the phrasing of survey questions can influence responses.

What truly worries Americans, however, is what might occur once the votes have been cast. According to a YouGov/CBS News survey, 47% of adults believe that "votes not being counted correctly" is a significant issue in U.S. elections, while 55% feel that "efforts to invalidate official election results" are major concerns. Likewise, 69% of Ipsos/Reuters participants expressed they were very or somewhat worried about attempts to overturn official election results — by far the largest percentage among all scenarios presented to them.

Americans hold varied opinions on Trump's electoral platform

Many people are concerned about the outcome of the midterms — but what, if anything, do they believe should be done? According to the polls, Americans hold complex, and sometimes conflicting, opinions on this matter.

First — as Trump hasboasted many times— A large majority of Americans back several of the Republicans' initiatives aimed at tightening election procedures. Approximately 80% of adults endorse the requirement for voters to present identification, as reported by both YouGov/CBS News (which specifically inquired about photo IDs) and Ipsos/Reuters (which simply asked about "official ID"). According to YouGov/CBS News, 66% of adults are in favor of demanding proof of citizenship for voter registration. Participants indicated that 43% believe this measure would be more effective in stopping non-citizens from voting illegally than in hindering citizens from voting legally, while 29% held the opposite view; 28% felt it would have an equal impact on both aspects.

There is, of course, ongoing federal legislation aimed at introducing a proof-of-citizenship requirement, but notably, the YouGov/CBS News poll revealed that people slightly oppose one of these bills, theSAVE Act, 31% to 28%. However, the key figure is the 41% who were uncertain about their position on it — likely a reflection of the fact that many Americans are not closely tracking the discussion about the bill in Washington. In fact, 36% of adults said to YouGov/CBS News that they don't even know what's in it!

On the flip side, Americans do not seem to support Trump's initiative to eliminate mail-in voting. A survey conducted by YouGov/CBS News revealed that 49% of adults felt that mail voting should be accessible to every voter who desires it, whereas 39% believed it should only be available to those unable to vote in person. Just 12% considered it should never be allowed.

The same survey also revealed that Americans are doubtful about theTrump administration’s efforts to become more active in managing electionsOnly 41% of participants believed that increased federal supervision of elections is necessary. The same percentage felt that the present level of oversight was adequate, while 18% believed that less oversight than currently exists would be preferable.

In a similar vein, when YouGov/CBS News asked who should have the final authority over how states manage their elections, only 29% believed it should be the federal government. A significant 71% felt it should be left to the individual states.

Americans have confidence in local election administrators

People's inclination towards local election management highlights a larger reality: Despite their concerns at the national level, Americans generally have confidence in how the midterms will be handled in their own areas.

According to the Marist poll, 66% of adults expressed confidence that their state or local government would conduct a fair and accurate election in November, though this figure is somewhat lower compared to the percentage who felt the same before the 2020, 2022, or 2024 elections. Additionally, based on a YouGov/CBS News survey, 35% of adults have "a lot" of trust in their local election officials, 39% have "some," while only 26% have "not much" or "none" at all.

In conclusion, approximately 70% of participants in the YouGov/CBS News and Ipsos/Reuters surveys expressed confidence that their individual votes would be counted properly. Additionally, Marist reported that 63% had either "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of trust in the accurate counting of ballots cast in the election.

Notably, these questions were the only ones in this article that did not show a major partisan divide: For instance, 68% of Democrats expressed confidence that the 2026 ballots would be counted correctly, and 67% of Republicans shared the same view.

In general, Americans' opinions on election administration appear to be quite varied. They are anxious about elections being reversed, yet they believe the process of counting votes will be reliable. They view fraud as a serious issue and back measures to secure elections, but they also worry about voters being excluded from participating.

It doesn't always result in a unified story, but it's possible to bring together all the information mentioned: It's reasonable to desire elections free from fraud and also ensure full voting access; to back federal laws while believing they should be carried out at the state level; and to be concerned about the worst-case situations while recognizing they are unlikely to occur. The political arguments about voting that we've become familiar with don't allow much room for subtlety, but the claims made by politicians and activists are often just stereotypes; the real opinions of Americans are much more intricate.

Nathaniel Rakich serves as the managing editor and is located in Washington, D.C. Reach out to Nathaniel atnrakich@.org.

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