Tasmania's Population Growth: A Shift in Trends
Between 2016 and 2021, Tasmania experienced a surge in population growth, with nearly 50,000 new residents joining the state. While this number may seem modest compared to larger states, it was significant enough for Tasmania to outpace the rest of the country during that period. However, since then, the growth has slowed down considerably.
In September 2025, Tasmania's annual growth rate dropped to just 0.3 per cent, marking the lowest rate in the country. According to demographer Lisa Denny, this is the lowest population growth rate Tasmania has seen this century. The Centre for Population predicts that by 2028-29, Tasmania will be the first state in Australia to enter natural decline, where deaths outnumber births.
The main factors contributing to this trend include a continued exodus of young adults and an increased reliance on overseas migration to sustain population growth. Dr. Denny noted that many young Tasmanians are born overseas and hold temporary visas, making them less likely to make long-term family decisions in the state.
Economic Implications of Low Population Growth
Tasmanian Treasury papers highlight the risks associated with low or declining population growth. It could exacerbate existing challenges such as skill shortages and an aging population. The economic impact of this trend is significant, as slower population growth leads to lower payroll tax, stamp duty, and consumer spending, which in turn affects GST revenue.
GST is a major source of revenue for the Tasmanian government, more so than for any other part of the country except the Northern Territory. Independent economist Saul Eslake pointed out that while population growth is not the only way to boost the economy, Tasmania has been poor at driving productivity improvements.
Despite these challenges, Tasmanian Treasurer Eric Abetz claims the economy has strengthened despite recent low population growth. He cited a 1.1 per cent growth in gross state product per capita. However, the aging population poses additional challenges, including increased healthcare costs and skills shortages.
By 2050, the median age of a Tasmanian is expected to reach around 48 years, with 28 per cent of the population over 65. Abetz mentioned that the state is already facing issues related to an older population, such as patients stranded in hospitals due to a lack of aged care facilities. This problem costs the state $100 million annually, and he urges the federal government to address it.
Migration and Housing Challenges
Even though Tasmania's population growth has plateaued since 2021, some areas have seen increased peak-hour traffic congestion and growth in outer suburbs. Over the past five years, municipalities like Clarence, Brighton, and Meander Valley have experienced population increases. However, other local government areas, such as Hobart and Glenorchy, have recorded declines.
The demand for housing has risen due to interstate and overseas migration, leading to pressure on the short-stay accommodation sector. Dr. Denny highlighted that the loss of houses to non-permanent occupancy is adding to the housing crisis.
Future Plans for Attracting Residents
Mr. Abetz stated that Tasmania is still on track to reach its target of 650,000 people by 2050. Treasury papers suggest that lower population growth could improve housing affordability, potentially attracting more interstate migrants. The construction of the Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart is also seen as a potential drawcard for young workers.
However, Dr. Denny noted that Tasmania will face competition from other large construction projects, such as those for the Brisbane Olympic Games. Mr. Eslake believes that improving basic government services, particularly education and health systems, is crucial to reversing the population outflow.
Dr. Denny also emphasized the need to reframe how decision-makers view an aging population. She argued that keeping people active and productive in the workforce presents opportunities for both older residents and younger job seekers.
Personal Stories of Migration
For every Tasmanian arrival and departure, there is a unique story behind the move. Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner moved to Tasmania in 2018 with limited resources but a strong determination to build a life. They started from scratch, working their way up and eventually buying a home. They now have two children and describe Burnie as similar to growing up in Melbourne in the 90s, with a close-knit community and friendly atmosphere.
On the other hand, 22-year-old Ellie Warmbrunn left Tasmania for Queensland's Gold Coast, where she is pursuing a career in journalism and modeling. She enjoys the lifestyle and plans to stay for the foreseeable future, citing greater career opportunities.
While some areas of Tasmania are experiencing growth, others are seeing declines. The challenge remains to attract and retain residents, especially young people, to ensure a sustainable future for the state.
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