Rising Inflation and Economic Concerns
As inflation surges due to rising energy costs linked to tensions with Iran, American voters are showing their strongest economic disapproval of the President yet. According to the latest poll by Daily Mail/JL Partners, 59 percent of voters believe the economy is deteriorating, a three-point increase from the previous month. Only 19 percent of those surveyed in May think the US is improving economically under the current leadership.
The situation has been exacerbated by the President's blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway responsible for one-fifth of global oil trade. This has led to an average price of $4.50 per gallon at US gas stations. Meanwhile, Iran has taken actions to disrupt the strait by seizing US-backed oil tankers using speedboats and attacking them with explosive drones.
Voters are feeling the financial pressure, with nearly half (48 percent) stating that recent gas price increases have either somewhat or significantly impacted their savings. Twenty-six percent report a significant hit to their savings. However, 15 percent say the fuel costs have only slightly affected their savings, while another 22 percent claim their savings remain untouched.
Poll Reveals Americans’ Growing Financial Anxiety
A shocking 12 percent of voters admit they have no savings at all. The President faces additional challenges as 18 percent of voters say they will deplete their savings within a month if gas prices remain high. Adding the 16 percent who expect to run out of savings within one to three months, approximately a third of the population is facing a three-month financial crisis tied to the economic consequences of the President's policies.
The political impact of rising fuel prices is evident, with 54 percent of voters blaming the President for the situation. American oil and gas companies are seen as a distant second, with 36 percent of voters holding them accountable, followed by the Iranian government at 31 percent.
The President's overall approval rating remains steady at 43 percent, while 57 percent of voters disapprove. The Daily Mail/JL Partners poll surveyed 1,003 registered voters online from May 15 to 18, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
Trump Faces Economic Pressure Ahead of Midterms
Trump regained his position in the Oval Office after the 2024 election partly due to voter frustration with Democrats' economic handling and the belief that he could alleviate their financial concerns. Now, the economy is becoming one of his most challenging issues as the GOP approaches the midterm elections.
Trump recently aborted a 'full scale' attack on Iran at the last minute, withdrawing US forces only after Middle Eastern leaders intervened to plead for one final opportunity at a nuclear deal. Oil prices remained high even after Trump indicated a potential peace deal was imminent. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell from $112 per barrel to $109 per barrel on the news.
Whether Trump can turn the page by lowering fuel costs through reopening the Strait of Hormuz may determine how well Republicans perform in the midterms.
Economic Warnings from a Billionaire
Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has a history of making provocative statements on television. Earlier this month, he warned that the world is heading toward a potential global conflict between major powers. Today, Dalio appeared on CNBC to state that the US economy has entered a ‘stagflationary environment.’
According to the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, stubborn inflation and slowing growth should be a cause for concern. Dalio shared his outlook just before the government releases its preliminary look at US economic growth for the first quarter of 2026. Economists estimate the economy expanded by 2.2 percent in the quarter, which is far from stagflation—a term economists use to describe the dangerous mix of rising prices and falling economic growth.
Building on his analysis, Dalio argued it would be a mistake for the new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, to lower interest rates. “We are certainly in a stagflationary period,” Dalio told CNBC.
Dalio is partially correct in his assessment: the US is currently experiencing rising prices. The March inflation report showed a 3.3 percent increase in prices over the year, up sharply from 2.4 percent in February. Skyrocketing energy prices were the main driver, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the overall inflation gain in March.
While the growth aspect of his forecast remains debatable, the expert consensus is that the US economy is still growing despite the war and higher energy prices.
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