The Rapid Evolution of AI in Warfare
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies, such as Mythos and Maven, have significantly transformed global military operations over the past three months. These systems are not just changing how wars are fought but also redefining the ethical and strategic frameworks that govern them.
In Iran, Maven has accelerated the pace at which the United States conducts military operations. Major Matthew Jefferies, writing on the Australian army's professional development platform Cove, emphasized that "AI is in the kill chain," urging his country to act swiftly to keep up with the US. This highlights the growing importance of AI in modern warfare, where speed and precision can be decisive factors.
From Silicon Valley, Mythos has been associated with a surge in cyber attacks. Recent reports by AFP suggest that the latest AI models may be approaching a point where they could escape human control. In response, Anthropic has called for a global pause in AI development, underscoring the urgency of addressing these concerns.
Anthropic, the company behind both Mythos and Claude, has played a pivotal role in advancing AI capabilities. Its models have underpinned systems like Maven, demonstrating the potential of AI in various military applications. As these technologies evolve, the implications for global security become increasingly complex.
New Zealand’s Approach to Drone Warfare
The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) has recently released a document outlining its approach to robotic autonomous systems (RAS). However, the document reveals a lack of comprehensive doctrine on RAS, with the NZDF seeking guidance from the government on their ethical use. The report emphasizes the need for new doctrine, tactics, and operational guidance, suggesting that the services must evaluate current practices and generate new strategies as required.
Government policy will set the ethical expectations for the NZDF, but the release of a single page in response to requests for more detailed documents raises questions about transparency and depth of engagement. The NZDF withheld parts of the document for national security reasons, highlighting the delicate balance between openness and security in military affairs.
For the government policy on drone warfare ethics, Defence Minister Chris Penk directed inquiries to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT). MFAT has various documents on its website, primarily focusing on New Zealand's position on autonomous weapons for international forums rather than specific to the NZDF. The ministry stated that it supports legally binding rules and limits on autonomous weapon systems.
Ethical Considerations and Military Strategy
Jeremy Moses, an arms researcher and associate professor in international relations at Canterbury University, noted that the current moment is transitional. He pointed out that while there is a need for deeper engagement with the ethics of autonomous warfare, the focus on lethality and speed in military operations remains paramount.
Moses was not surprised by the NZDF's limited engagement with the issue. He suggested that increased resources dedicated to ethical considerations might not necessarily lead to meaningful outcomes, given the prioritization of military effectiveness. The US, despite having developed policies and doctrines around these issues, often places greater emphasis on being more lethal in its operations.
New Zealand's plan for building defense capability up to 2029 emphasizes enhanced lethality. Previous Defence Minister Judith Collins highlighted the need to double defense spending and invest in a combat-capable force with increased deterrence and interoperability with partners.
The Influence of Global Conflicts
The debate around AI and drones is influenced by ongoing conflicts in regions such as Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran. These conflicts have raised new questions about the speed and autonomy of military operations, while also fueling the pursuit of advanced technologies. For instance, the South China Morning Post reported that Beijing has developed an algorithm enabling a fleet of fixed-wing drones to autonomously search a battlefield and eliminate enemies.
In Iran, the Pentagon claims that its central Maven AI system coordinated 13,000 strikes in 38 days, averaging one every four minutes. While the Department of War maintains that humans always make the final decision to strike, the integration of AI into targeting processes has significant implications for military strategy.
The Debate on Human Oversight
The concept of "human in the loop" has been central to discussions about AI in warfare. However, some experts argue that this is an illusion of oversight, as agentic AI may consider hidden factors that humans cannot perceive. Katrina Manson, author of Project Maven, noted that while many military commanders use the phrase "human in the loop," it is not technically the policy of the Defence Department.
Instead, the 2023 policy emphasized "appropriate levels of human judgment over the use of force," implying a closer form of supervision. This has led to the term "human on the loop" being used instead of "in" it.
From Experiment to Essential
Professor Moses observed that old questions about lethality and autonomy have taken a backseat to the rapid advancement of AI in warfare. He noted that the debate around autonomy has not progressed significantly over the last 15 years, partly due to the focus on the practical applications of AI in real-world conflicts.
Maven, initially tested in exercises involving the US, Australia, New Zealand, and other countries, has now moved from experimentation to essential military operations. The NZDF is preparing to send 50 personnel to an exercise in the western US, further integrating AI into its military strategies.
Future Implications for New Zealand
The NZDF's single page on drone doctrine and ethics highlights the need for more thinking and public engagement. It stresses the importance of informing the public about how RAS and humans interact and calls for open dialogue between government, Defence, and the public to build trust in the benefits and lawful uses of RAS.
However, intersections for public debate remain limited. An autonomous weapons advisory group was shut down in 2024, and disarmament education grants were dropped from Budget 2026. These developments raise concerns about the future of ethical discussions surrounding AI in warfare.
As AI continues to shape the landscape of military operations, New Zealand faces critical decisions about how to balance technological advancement with ethical considerations. The path forward requires thoughtful engagement, transparent dialogue, and a commitment to responsible innovation.
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