The Road to EU Membership: Challenges Remain for Ukraine
With the departure of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, many had hoped that Ukraine’s path toward European Union (EU) membership would become smoother. However, as the country continues its journey toward integration, new challenges have emerged that could complicate its progress.
The pressure is mounting in Brussels to make significant strides in opening what are known as "enlargement clusters" by the next EU leaders' meeting on June 18. National ambassadors have expressed concerns about whether enough progress will be made in time. The question remains: who or what is holding things up?
Not the European Commission. Marta Kos, the EU's Enlargement Commissioner, has consistently stated that Ukraine is ready to open all six enlargement clusters. Therefore, any blockages are politically driven by specific EU countries.
Understanding the Enlargement Clusters
Cluster 1, known as the "Fundamentals," is the first to formally "open" and the last to "close." It addresses broad themes such as democracy and the rule of law. The other five clusters are more policy-specific, and their completion indicates that a candidate country aligns with EU laws and norms.
Although Orban's defeat has shifted the tone of the Hungary-Ukraine relationship, it hasn't necessarily resolved the issues preventing Budapest from allowing Cluster 1 to open. New Prime Minister Peter Magyar suggested in a tweet on May 18 that European Council President Antonio Costa told President Volodymyr Zelensky that accession talks cannot proceed until minority issues are resolved.
The Orban government had previously made 11 demands regarding the use of the Hungarian language in western Ukraine, particularly in education and political life. A spokesperson for Costa confirmed the conversation with Magyar but declined to comment on the details. Zelensky's press release on his call with Costa did not mention the minority issue.
The Role of Hungary and Other EU Members
Hungarian politician Marton Hajdu, who Magyar counts on for EU guidance, emphasized the need for a bilateral agreement to ensure minority rights are met. He stated that the issue cannot wait, as mentioned in an interview in April.
On May 18, the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Hungary each announced that the issue is being sent for expert-level talks, showing a new willingness to break the impasse.
Poland, and possibly other countries, also presents challenges. While Poland won't block the opening of Cluster 1, Warsaw is hesitant on sectoral issues where it fears Ukraine — specifically agriculture and transport.
At an event organized by the European Policy Center think tank in Brussels in April, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka, responsible for European integration, highlighted these areas as potential hold-ups to enlargement talks.
Agricultural and Transport Concerns
Kachka noted that Polish farmers may worry about how Ukraine's European integration could affect their subsidies. He sought to reassure that Ukraine is not intending to pose any threat to Polish farmers, but the problem lies in how subsidies are awarded under the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
To resolve this, the EU must change the system of awarding agricultural subsidies, according to Stefan Meister from the Kyiv-based think tank EPIK. Kachka also acknowledged that road transport is a sensitive area and that the task is to find a solution that does not threaten Polish truck drivers.
France and Other Concerns
France appears to have similar reservations, given the political importance of its agricultural sector. This suggests that Poland might not be the only country with sectoral concerns.
What Can Be Achieved in June?
Enlargement Commissioner Kos expects Cluster 1 to open by the end of June, but she will need to rely on the Irish presidency in the second half of the year to drive through the opening of the remaining clusters.
To achieve this, EU countries must agree on a "Common Position" for Ukraine, after which they can organize an "Intergovernmental Conference," which would rubber-stamp the opening of one or more clusters for Ukraine.
Looking at the EU's calendar, there is a General Affairs Council scheduled for June 16, two days before the EU leaders' summit. A likely time for the Intergovernmental Conference to take place would be between these two meetings, giving EU leaders something to celebrate with Zelensky on June 18.
Assuming agreement can be reached with Hungary, the first cluster should be able to open. As for the other five clusters, the expectation is that Clusters 4 and 5 (transport and agriculture, respectively) will not open in June. Cluster 6, on external relations, is likely to open as soon as talks progress, while Clusters 2 and 3, covering economic criteria, remain an open question.
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