The War in Ukraine: A Growing Challenge for Russia
As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, it is becoming increasingly difficult for officials in the Kremlin to portray the conflict as something distant from the daily lives of Russian civilians. From persistent internet disruptions to a scaled-down Victory Day parade and a major aerial attack in the Moscow region that claimed three lives, the full-scale war is no longer seen as a faraway issue.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the attack on Moscow's suburbs as a just retribution for the relentless and deadly missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other cities in recent weeks. These attacks occurred only days after both Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump suggested that the war in Ukraine was nearing its end.
One of the Biggest Attacks by Ukraine So Far
The Russian Defence Ministry reported that its air defenses downed 1,054 Ukrainian drones in the previous 24 hours, one of the largest numbers recorded by the military. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that 81 drones were shot down by the capital’s air defenses between late Saturday and early Sunday.
The attacks resulted in three deaths near the Russian capital, with 12 others injured. Multiple apartment buildings were damaged, and several private homes were destroyed. One drone hit a Moscow refinery but did not disrupt production, according to Mr. Sobyanin. Another struck an oil tank at a storage facility, causing a fire that covered the area in black smoke.
Several airports in Moscow suspended operations, with dozens of flights delayed or diverted. A Ukrainian drone fell on the grounds of Sheremetyevo airport, but no damage was reported.
Ukraine's Growing Drone Arsenal
Ukraine's ability to penetrate Moscow's dense air defense system reflects the growth in its drone capabilities and improved tactics. Kyiv has steadily increased its drone raids, focusing on energy facilities and arms factories. However, the capital remains a more challenging target.
"The Moscow region is the most heavily saturated with Russian air defense systems," Mr. Zelensky said in a speech to the nation. He added that "our long-range capabilities are significantly changing the situation – and, more broadly, the world’s perception of Russia’s war."
The weekend attack on Moscow was a justified response to "Russia’s prolongation of the war and attacks on our cities and communities," Mr. Zelensky said. "We are clearly telling the Russians: Their state must end its war," he wrote in a social media post.
The deadliest attack last week in Ukraine saw 24 people killed when a Russian missile destroyed a nine-story apartment building in Kyiv.
A Scaled-Back Victory Day
The attacks followed a brief US-brokered three-day ceasefire that failed to end the fighting but led to a pause in long-range attacks. This allowed Moscow to hold its annual 9 May military parade commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.
Concern over Ukraine's longer-range drone attacks led Russian authorities to scale down the parade. Unlike in previous years, no tanks, missiles, or other hardware marched through Red Square. After the parade, Mr. Putin stated that the war in Ukraine was nearing its end, although he did not explain his statement or provide a timetable.
He has insisted on his maximalist demands for ending the war, including that Ukraine must pull out its troops from the four regions that Moscow has annexed but never fully captured. Kyiv has rejected this demand.
Mr. Trump also claimed last week that the end of the war was "getting very close," even though US efforts to broker an end to the fighting have failed to make any significant progress and are effectively on hold since the start of the war in Iran.
Growing Domestic Discontent in Russia
The Moscow attacks come at a time when tensions are rising in Russia over the growing cost of the war and increasingly restrictive government policies that have dented Putin’s traditionally high popularity. Some military bloggers and social media influencers who had been loyal to the Kremlin have started openly questioning the government’s policies.
A move by the authorities to restrict cellphone internet and block popular messaging apps has caused massive losses to businesses and disruptions to everyday life for millions of Russians, triggering public outrage. The government defended its action by citing the need to thwart attacks by Ukrainian drones, some of which rely on mobile internet for targeting. Critics denounce the shutdowns as the latest move by authorities to tighten control over the internet.
The growing frustration over the restrictions led the public to file petitions to the presidential administration and to try to organize protests that were quickly blocked.
As tensions mount, Mr. Putin is starting a two-day visit to China.
Controlling the Message and Threatening Retaliation
State TV stations sought to play down the Moscow attacks, which received only a brief mention on some newscasts. They focused instead on a successful test last week of a new intercontinental ballistic missile intended to be a key part of Russia’s nuclear forces.
Several war bloggers said the weekend attack exposed vulnerabilities in air defenses that must be fixed quickly. Some urged the Kremlin to ramp up attacks on Ukraine and target its government.
"The time has come to hit the decision-making centres," wrote Alexander Kots of the daily Komsomolskaya Pravda. Pro-Kremlin political commentator Sergei Markov wrote that he woke up to the sound of explosions over the weekend as air defenses fired on the attacking drones. He blamed Kyiv’s allies for helping Ukraine boost its drone output, alleging "it was Europe that tried to hit Moscow."
"As long as Europe believes it’s safe, such attempts will continue," Mr. Markov said. Russian hawks long have urged the Kremlin to respond to the growing Ukrainian attacks by striking Kyiv’s allies in Europe.
Last month, the Defence Ministry published a list of factories in Europe that it said were involved in producing drones and their components for Ukraine. It warned that attacks on Russia involving drones manufactured in Europe are fraught with "unpredictable consequences."
Asked on Sunday by a state TV commentator why Moscow tolerates being "bitten" like that, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded that its nuclear deterrent is intended to fend off threats to Russia’s existence.
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