The War in Ukraine: A Growing Challenge for Russia
As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russian officials to portray the conflict as something distant from the daily lives of civilians. From internet disruptions to a scaled-down Victory Day parade and a significant aerial attack in the Moscow region, the impact of the war is becoming more tangible for Russians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the recent attack on Moscow's suburbs as a form of retribution for the ongoing missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other cities. These attacks occurred just days after both President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump suggested that the war was nearing an end.
One of the Largest Drone Attacks
The Russian Defence Ministry reported that its air defenses shot down 1,054 Ukrainian drones in the previous 24 hours, marking one of the largest counts recorded by the military. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin noted that 81 drones were downed by the capital’s air defenses between late Saturday and early Sunday.
The attacks resulted in three deaths near the Russian capital, with 12 others injured. Multiple apartment buildings were damaged, and several private homes were destroyed. One drone hit a Moscow refinery but did not disrupt production, according to Mr. Sobyanin. Another struck an oil tank at a storage facility, causing a fire that blanketed the area in black smoke.
Several Moscow airports suspended operations, with dozens of flights delayed or diverted. Although a Ukrainian drone fell on the grounds of Sheremetyevo airport, no damage was reported.
Ukraine's Expanding Drone Capabilities
Ukraine’s ability to penetrate Moscow’s air defense systems reflects the growth of its drone arsenal and improved tactics. Kyiv has been increasing its drone raids, targeting energy facilities and arms factories. However, the capital remains a challenging target due to its heavy air defense coverage.
“The Moscow region is the most heavily saturated with Russian air defense systems,” Mr. Zelensky stated in a speech. He added that “our long-range capabilities are significantly changing the situation – and, more broadly, the world’s perception of Russia’s war.”
The weekend attack on Moscow was framed as a justified response to “Russia’s prolongation of the war and attacks on our cities and communities.” Mr. Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine is clearly sending a message to Russia: “Their state must end its war.”
A Scaled-Down Victory Day Celebration
The attacks followed a brief US-brokered three-day ceasefire that failed to end the fighting but allowed Moscow to hold an annual military parade commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Concerns over Ukraine’s longer-range drone attacks led Russian authorities to scale back the parade. Unlike previous years, no tanks, missiles, or other military hardware were displayed in Red Square.
After the parade, Mr. Putin claimed the war in Ukraine was nearing its end, though he did not provide details or a timeline. He reiterated his maximalist demands for ending the war, including Ukraine pulling out troops from four annexed regions. Kyiv has rejected these demands.
Mr. Trump also expressed that the end of the war was “getting very close,” despite the lack of progress in US efforts to broker a resolution. These efforts have effectively stalled since the start of the war in Iran.
Rising Domestic Discontent
The Moscow attacks come at a time when tensions are rising in Russia over the growing cost of the war and increasingly restrictive government policies that have affected Putin’s traditionally high popularity. Some military bloggers and social media influencers who had previously supported the Kremlin have started questioning the government’s policies.
A recent move by authorities to restrict cellphone internet and block popular messaging apps has caused significant losses for businesses and disrupted everyday life for millions of Russians, leading to public outrage. The government defended the action by citing the need to prevent attacks by Ukrainian drones, which some use mobile internet for targeting. Critics view the shutdowns as another step by the authorities to tighten control over the internet.
Public frustration over the restrictions has led to petitions to the presidential administration and attempts to organize protests, which were quickly blocked.
Controlling the Narrative and Threatening Retaliation
State TV stations sought to minimize the impact of the Moscow attacks, with only brief mentions on some newscasts. They focused instead on a successful test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile intended to be a key part of Russia’s nuclear forces.
Some war bloggers highlighted vulnerabilities in air defenses that need to be addressed quickly. Others urged the Kremlin to increase attacks on Ukraine and target its government.
“The time has come to hit the decision-making centres,” wrote Alexander Kots of the daily Komsomolskaya Pravda. Pro-Kremlin political commentator Sergei Markov blamed Kyiv’s allies for helping Ukraine boost its drone output, claiming “it was Europe that tried to hit Moscow.”
Russian hawks have long called for the Kremlin to respond to the growing Ukrainian attacks by striking Kyiv’s allies in Europe. Last month, the Defence Ministry published a list of European factories involved in producing drones and their components for Ukraine, warning that attacks on Russia involving such drones could have “unpredictable consequences.”
When asked on Sunday by a state TV commentator why Moscow tolerates being “bitten” like that, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded that its nuclear deterrent is meant to protect Russia from threats to its existence.
No comments:
Post a Comment