The recent downing of two American military aircraft over Iran represents a significant and exceptionally rare occurrence for the United States, marking an event not seen in over two decades. This incident underscores the Islamic Republic's continued capacity to retaliate, even as President Donald Trump had previously asserted that Iran's capabilities had been "completely decimated."
These attacks transpired just five weeks after U.S. and Israeli forces initiated substantial strikes against Iran. Earlier in the week, President Trump had stated that Tehran's "ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed."
According to U.S. officials, Iran shot down a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet on Friday. While one service member was successfully rescued, a search remains ongoing for a second individual. Iranian state media also reported the crash of a U.S. A-10 attack aircraft, claiming it was brought down by Iranian defence forces.
Retired Air Force Brigadier General Houston Cantwell, a former F-16 fighter pilot, noted that the last time a U.S. fighter jet was downed in combat was an A-10 Thunderbolt II during the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. However, he elaborated that this was largely due to engagements with insurgent forces who lacked sophisticated anti-aircraft capabilities. Cantwell suggested that the absence of further fighter jet losses in Iran until now is a testament to the advanced capabilities of U.S. forces.
"The fact that this hasn’t happened until now is an absolute miracle,” Cantwell remarked. Having served four combat tours and now a senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, he added, “We’re flying combat missions here, they are being shot at every day.”
Experts Suggest Shoulder-Fired Missile as Likely Weapon
U.S. Central Command issued a statement on Wednesday detailing that American forces have conducted over 13,000 missions in the Iran conflict, targeting more than 12,300 objectives.
Despite over a month of intense U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iran's military, though degraded, remains a formidable adversary. The consistent barrage of strikes launched by Iran against Israel and its Gulf Arab neighbours has been a significant source of regional instability and has triggered global economic repercussions.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, highlighted a crucial distinction between air superiority and air supremacy concerning American dominance over Iranian airspace.
“A disabled air defence system is not a destroyed air defence system,” Taleblu stated. “We shouldn’t be shocked that they’re still fighting.”
He further explained that American aircraft have been compelled to fly at lower altitudes, rendering them more vulnerable to Iranian missiles. Taleblu suggested that while a surface-to-air missile might have been used against the F-15, it is more probable that a portable, shoulder-fired missile was employed. Such weapons are considerably more difficult to detect and exemplify Iran's paradoxical nature: "weak but still lethal."
“This is a regime that is fighting for its life,” he commented.
Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Colonel and senior defence advisor with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, concurred that a shoulder-fired missile was the likely weapon used against the fighter jet.
Nevertheless, Cancian assessed the American air campaign against Iran as a "tremendous success" thus far. He provided historical context, noting that the loss rate for American warplanes over Germany during World War II reached 3% at one point, which, if applied to the current U.S. operations in Iran, would equate to approximately 350 aircraft.
“But then there’s the political side — you have an American public that is accustomed to fighting bloodless wars,” Cancian observed. “Then a large part of the country doesn’t support the war. So to them, any loss is unacceptable.”
Pilot Training Emphasises Ejection and Survival Protocols
The U.S. jet downed in combat on April 8, 2003, over Baghdad was struck by an Iraqi surface-to-air missile. According to Air Force records, the pilot ejected safely and was subsequently rescued.
Retired General Cantwell explained that in high-threat environments, such as missions over Iran, aviators experience heightened physiological responses, including increased blood pressure and acute awareness of incoming threats. These threats typically consist of infrared- or radar-guided missiles, each necessitating distinct evasive manoeuvres.
Should the aircraft be hit and an ejection becomes necessary, pilots are rigorously trained on the subsequent steps. This training encompasses immediate post-ejection procedures, including self-assessment for injuries sustained during the violent ejection and the shock of a missile detonation. Crucially, pilots are trained on how to establish communication and transmit their location to facilitate rescue efforts.
Simultaneously, Cantwell acknowledged that adversary forces are likely engaged in efforts to intercept these communications or even to generate false location data.
Helicopters Pose Greater Risk Due to Flight Characteristics
The aircraft that were lost on Friday were not the first crewed American aircraft to be lost in Iran.
In 1980, a military helicopter and an aeroplane were destroyed during an abortive mission aimed at rescuing American hostages from the U.S. embassy in Tehran, as documented by the Air Force Historical Support Division. This mission encountered a series of severe setbacks, including intense dust storms and critical mechanical failures, ultimately leading to its cancellation. As the aircraft attempted to take off, the rotor blades of one of the RH-53 helicopters collided with a fuel-laden EC-130 aircraft, resulting in a catastrophic explosion that claimed the lives of eight personnel.
In recent decades, several U.S. helicopters have been shot down. Notably, an MH-47 Army Chinook helicopter was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade in Afghanistan in 2005, resulting in the deaths of 16 individuals. Cantwell highlighted that helicopters are inherently more vulnerable, stating, “the lower and the slower, the more susceptible you are.”
This inherent risk underscores the courage of those involved in the recent rescue missions, which likely involved helicopters. Cantwell concluded, “That’s why those who went out on this week's rescue missions, likely in helicopters, he said, did ‘such a brave and honourable act.’”
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